华尔街日报汇市综述

英文的要花钱定

WALLSTREET 汇市分析   北京时间2006年02月01日07:11

美元下跌，但Fed政策倾向提振了美元前景  

美元在纽约汇市周二交易中普遍走软，不过在联邦储备委员会(Fed)宣布加息并暗示加息步伐可能尚未停止之后，美元从盘中低点迅速有所回升。

美元在利率决策会议之前下跌，因为市场相信Fed或许会发出明确信号表明加息周期结束。可Fed的声明却并非如此，而是给新任主席本•贝南克(Ben Bernanke)留下了定夺的足量空间。

对市场来说，这意味著Fed将继续密切关注经济数据，分析师们表示，鉴于普遍预计第一季度经济增长将相当强劲，Fed在3月份进一步加息的可能性很大。

汇丰(HSBC)驻纽约汇市资深策略师Bob Lynch称，可能一些人此前预计Fed会更为温和一些，并可能明确表示加息周期结束。但当事实并非如此时，投资者们开始买回早些时候抛出的美元。

RBC Capital驻纽约汇市策略师T.J. Marta称，Fed并未给出一个美元的明确走向，尽管很多市场人士预计美元兑主要货币今年将走低，但Fed周二的声明对判断跌势何时将要开始帮助不大。

Fed在周二声明中去除了2004年6月份开始加息以来一直延用的“有节制”的说法，并暗示未来利率决定将很大程度上参考经济数据做出。

鉴于近期数据表现强劲，比如耐用品订单和首次申请失业救济人数，以及定于周五公布的1月份非农就业人数预计将显示该月新增25万个工作岗位，因此目前美元可能获得更强支撑。

纽约银行(Bank of New York)资深汇市策略师Michael Woolfolk称，这一政策声明为美元提供了上升空间，因为市场人士目前可以在经济数据向好的情况下买进美元了。

昨天和今天公布的欧元区和德国数据都略差于预期,今天公布美国的ISM数据也略差于预期,两者一比,不会对EUR/USD有影响.

伊朗核问题明天提交联合国,问题仍在理性的程序中.

欧洲经济持续复苏,利率处于历史低位,周四不出意外,特里谢将宣布利率不变,并发出3月加息的明确信号.

从现在到周五,非农数据主导市场心理,而这利空EUR/USD.

因而我预计在接下来的周四,周五非农数据公布前,EUR/USD将缓慢下行至1.2020-1.2060区间.

WALLSTREET 汇市分析  北京时间2006年02月02日07:25

美元延续加息以来升势，市场等待就业数据公布

美元周三普遍走强，延续了周二晚些时候美国联邦储备委员会(Fed)加息并表示有必要继续收紧政策后开始的升势。

美元兑日圆已涨至2006年高点，兑欧元则上扬至1月20日以来的最高水平。

尽管供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)公布的制造业活动指数1月份降至54.8，低于预期，但美元仍走强。分析师们称，在Fed会后投资者急于建立美元头寸，等待定于周五公布的预计较为强劲的非农就业人数数据。
道富银行(State Street)驻波士顿外汇策略师Brian Garvey称，随著周五的临近，越来越多的经济学家在向上修正他们对就业数据的预期。这对美元有利。

目前，经济学家们预计就业人数1月份将增加25万人，与此同时，利率期货市场走势继续表明3月份Fed还将加息一次。

交易员们称，道琼斯指数再次上涨，以及国债收益率的攀升也为美元带来支撑。

美元前夜受到欧洲数据令人失望的影响。欧元区1月份制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)由去年12月份的53.6降至53.5，经济学家此前的预期为54.1。

欧洲央行(European Central Bank)周四将召开会议。预计该央行将连续第二个月维持2.25%的利率不变。不过，市场关注点将集中于会后的记者会，投资者将关心央行行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)是否会采取某些行动驱散3月份加息预期。

美元兑日圆创出118.14日圆的盘中高点后有所回落。

http://chinese.wsj.com/gb/markets.asp

Gain Gapital  Ananysis  09:41 pm est

Data Preview: US January Employment Report—Friday February 3, 2006 0830EST
Unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.9%. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast to increase 8K (prior +18K).
Market expectations are for a non-farm payroll increase of 250K. The range of 75 analysts’ estimates is 175K to 350K. The average ‘miss’ (forecast vs. actual) for January NFP over the last 14 years is 104K. This leaves a wide range of outcomes for the market reaction based on the actual NFP report.
To complicate matters further, there is a strong bias among market analysts for a better-than-consensus result, and this will have the effect of accentuating the risks from a disappointing number while moderating the positive impact of a higher number.
In the grand scheme, a reading between 230-280K should be considered a positive result for the dollar (labor market strong, labor growing scarcer, increasing wage-driven inflation pressures, keeping the Fed in tightening mode), and potentially lead to markets factoring in another hike on May 10. A strong reading such as this would allow the dollar to break recent corrective highs and extend gains.
A reading between 180K-230K, while nominally disappointing, is a solid monthly job gain and is in line with monthly averages over the last year, and would do little to alter thinking on future Fed rate policy.
A reading sub-180K is likely to lead to severe short-term disappointment for dollar bulls, but should not fundamentally change the market’s thinking that the 1Q US growth is set to re-bound substantially from 4Q.
A few data-specific factors should be kept in mind. Market models are suggesting that January hiring accelerated after the mid-Jan MLK holiday, and this would result in most of January’s jobs gains being captured in the February employment survey, meaning that much of the strength currently expected for January NFP will be spread over Jan. and Feb. This would then likely result in a January NFP report below the median expectation.
Another factor to consider is next week’s $48 bio US Treasu y quarterly refunding auction, which will also see the re-introduction of the 30-year T-bond, absent since 2001. The view among bond markets is that a NFP number north of 250K will see a Treasury sell-off going into the auctions, and this will potentially scare off domestic investors and make the auctions’ success more heavily dependent on foreigner investor buying. If that foreign interest should fail to materialize and the auctions receive less interest, the US dollar has the potential to experience significant weakness. However, the impact on the dollar would likely be delayed until next week when the auction results are known.
A NFP result below 170K is likely to see bond markets begin to rally after the last two weeks of selling, and this would assure successful auctions across all maturities (3/10/30). The effect of a weaker NFP report on bonds has less direct implications for the dollar, and the currency market will react more independently.

It certainly seems like that we are heading into some uncertain economic times hence the focus on each number.

谢谢

昨天的NFP和上月的NFP,有很相似的地方

当月数据初值都大幅度低于预期,上月数据都大幅上修.失业率都下降.整体而言都微弱利多美元.为什么会有不同的市场反映呢?

我们只有从中线趋势中找答案.

上次NFP数据是在EUR/USD突破半月以来的区间环境中发布的.(见附件1)
本次是在EUR/USD连续10天下降中发布的.(见附件2)

因而我得出这样的结论:当NFP发布的数据不能表达明确的短线前景时,市场会站在中线的一边.

[ 本帖最后由 phangson 于 2006-2-4 14:42 编辑 ]

Reuters FOREX-Dollar holds near 7-wk high vs yen in Asia
Sun Feb 5, 2006 8:24 PM ET

TOKYO, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The dollar held in sight of a seven-week high against the yen on Monday after an upward revision to U.S. jobs data and a fall in the unemployment rate last week reinforced expectations for higher U.S. interest rates.
The dollar was also hovering below a one-month peak against the euro struck on Friday after the U.S. government reported jobs growth below market forecasts in January but revised up its numbers for the previous five months.
Other data showed that the jobless rate fell to a 4-1/2-year low of 4.7 percent.
"I think we'll see the dollar carry on its strong tone from Friday, at least for the first half of this week," said Hideaki Furumaya, forex manager at Trust & Custody Services Bank in Tokyo. "People are still looking for higher U.S. rates."
The dollar has steadied this month, following a dip in January, after the Federal Reserve raised its federal funds rate for the 14th straight time to 4.5 percent last Tuesday and left room for further increases.
The Fed suggested that any further rate rises were dependent on economic data.
Many in the market see the Fed lifting rates to 4.75 percent in March, maintaining the dollar's rate advantage over the euro and the yen.
This week's event calendar includes policy meetings by the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, as well as U.S. trade data on Friday.

[ 本帖最后由 phangson 于 2006-2-6 12:14 编辑 ]

THS

WAALSTREET 汇市分析 美元兑日圆下跌，因短线投资者获利回吐
北京时间2006年02月07日18:19

道富银行及信托公司(State Street Bank and Trust Company)驻东京的副总裁兼国债经理Noriyuki Kato表示，考虑到这一阻碍，美元估计在一段时间内难以稳步走高，这是引发短线投资者今日对美元获利回吐的原因。

交易商表示，由于美国和欧洲对冲基金回吐美元以锁定前夜利润，美元兑欧元也走低。电子交易系统显示，欧元此前一度升至1.1978美元的盘中高点，但此后回吐了部分涨幅。

交易员称，欧元兑美元汇率走向不明。在美国和欧洲的加息预期共同作用下，交易员难以作出买进美元或欧元的决定。

据欧洲一家银行驻东京的资深交易员称，如果从美国和欧洲的经济数据及利率前景方面判断，很难分出胜负。他预计欧元未来几周将在1.1800-1.2100美元之间保持区间波动。