PAUL SOLMAN: Our last stop was the apartment of Alexander Elder, a Russian émigré psychiatrist-- he jumped ship in 1974-- who went on to become an investor, and has written the day trader's bible, "Trading for a Living." He too thinks camera crews like ours don't see the whole picture.
DR. ALEXANDER ELDER, Psychiatrist: This is... the question of profits or losses are tremendously sensitive, personal questions. I mean, till you see accounts, you cannot believe a word that you are saying-- that you are hearing.
PAUL SOLMAN: Dr. Elder's business these days is analyzing investors, and he says most of them are losers, and he knows why.
DR. ALEXANDER ELDER: What happens to most people is that when they start making money, they get so wonderfully happy about it, that they lose all sense of caution, and they start taking stupid trades. And then they lose money, and then they become scared. And then the guy who is scared is sitting in front of the screen with a trigger finger like this.
PAUL SOLMAN: Now Elder doesn't think losing is inevitable-- far from it. In fact, he says, if you understand how most investors can behave, you can win by betting against them. You study lots of charts that depict crowd behavior doing technical analysis, instead of focusing on a firm's fundamentals. Understanding the crowd's psychology leads to the hardest job of all, he thinks: Understanding your own.
DR. ALEXANDER ELDER: It's all about discipline. It's all about increasing your percentage of winners. It's all about keeping your losses small.
PAUL SOLMAN: Disciplined enough to take your winnings and get out, or cut your losses and get out.
DR. ALEXANDER ELDER: Right. Not get too greedy. You have to cut short your own good streaks, and you have to accept your own losses.
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