1025外汇交流贴

发表于 2005-10-25 22:35


	原帖由 tigerbite 于 2005-10-25 17:41 发表本周是否有突破的可能, 当然有. 至于为什么消息而突破, 不好说. 从技术面看, 你问什么货币的走势呢? 欧元/美元的中期趋势我仍然没有改变看法. 至于短线, 1.1870~1.2040之间震荡区域向上突破的可能性更大. hehe 我今天想说的是4H图的技术面 2037是目前的支撑位吗？

发表于 2005-10-25 23:00


	请老虎版主谈谈对JPY的看法,今天于11570SELL,至今依然持有,个人感觉美元调整要求十分强烈,下探11310-20可能已经出现,接下来看112中部,请指教.谢谢.

发表于 2005-10-25 23:19


	USD/JPY的第一个主要支持在114.25~113.95之间. 如果突破下个支持在113~113.20之间. 这里出现反弹的机会比较大.

发表于 2005-10-25 23:30


	谢谢,最近在115后半部聚集的能量很大,下降速度可能会很快,是不是可以认为在本周看到114以下的价位.

发表于 2005-10-25 23:31

发表于 2005-10-25 23:52


	原帖由 yuany 于 2005-10-25 23:30 发表谢谢,最近在115后半部聚集的能量很大,下降速度可能会很快,是不是可以认为在本周看到114以下的价位. 这些都不是能够量化的判断, 只是主观的感受. 因此, 从交易的角度来说, 还是应该以遇到支持止赢, 突破支持加空的方法比较稳妥. 没有直线的趋势.

发表于 2005-10-26 00:08


	谢谢提醒,止赢单在下破11500已经设置,确实如老虎版主所言,上述感觉是在市场内的直觉,并没有很过硬的根据,只是前段上攻11600的 BUY单庞大,在IMM市场也有这种迹象,一旦发生舱位调整,将会迅速运动,这次自108起步的上升几乎没有象样的回调,积攒的能量将会很巨大. 不过还是很感谢你的交流和指教.

发表于 2005-10-26 00:21


	原帖由 yuany 于 2005-10-26 00:08 发表谢谢提醒,止赢单在下破11500已经设置,确实如老虎版主所言,上述感觉是在市场内的直觉,并没有很过硬的根据,只是前段上攻11600的 BUY单庞大,在IMM市场也有这种迹象,一旦发生舱位调整,将会迅速运动,这次自108起步的上 ... IMM市场上的JPY空单多数是投机者而买单多数是进出口商的对冲或者远期交收(FRA之类)的部位. 从IMM的数据可以看到JYP的投机仓位仍然很庞大, 和买单几乎规模相当(66036SHORT VS 73157LONG), OPEN INTEREST也很庞大. 因此, 暂时不能看到一边倒的行情, 美元即便下跌, 其对日员的下跌曲线也是上弧型的. 交易上要警惕空头的反抽.

发表于 2005-10-26 01:07


	[摘] ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Traders saw solid interest to sell USD/JPY from the macro community today. They cite falling US assets and a changing sentiment toward the Dollar as reasons for the selloff today. There is still concern that incoming Fed Chairman Bernanke is more of a monetary policy dove and has been a proponent of Dollar weakness in the past to address the large US current account imbalance. Diverging confidence data between the US and Europe has certainly given currencies a boost as well. USD/JPY sliced quickly below 115.00 today, triggering the stops rumored to sit between 114.85/90 for the better part of a week. The fall extended to 114.60 and then the pair bounced on the back of EUR/JPY buying. The cross sits near 139.00 and rumors of large stops above 139.20 have led to cross buying, limiting the weakness in USD/JPY. That fall in USD/JPY below 114.85 breached a 6-week trendline and now talk of exporters lowering offers to 115.50 has traders looking for the USD/JPY decline to extend. Many see the low set on October 6th at 113.02 as the next target for the bears and they suggest selling any rally to 114.90-115.00.

发表于 2005-10-26 01:17


	关于欧元美元的场内议论, 1025收盘前.....请参考. ------------------------------------------ [10:54 GMT Oct 25th] Plenty of Bernanke talk and speculation and the Fed Chair nominee has been on the wires as the content of a press interview keeps the US rate policy debate very much alive. The actual newspaper interview was conducted last week but published today and provides an insight into the Fed man"s policy thinking. The Fed will remain vigilant and ensure inflation is contained, Bernanke said but also that he does not recommend very sharp changes in approach to monetary policy. The market will no doubt be wary of initial Bernanke rhetoric, which is likely to be cautious and widely accommodating. Fall-out from the German IFO added to the EUR/USD turnaround and coupled with stop loss activity helped boost EUR/USD to 1.2035 highs. ECB rhetoric is beginning to take on hawkish dimensions and this might have swayed the bias within a leading German bank"s client sheet, suggesting the ECB could hike by year-end. Much now depends on the US reaction to the EUR/USD bounce. Next resistance now at 1.2045, an intraday high from Friday with minor support seen at 1.2025. --