 | |  | | 他也想不通为什么USD强势,他认为有某些因素,如传言清算美元空头,但最大的因素是油价和USD的高收益..他认为今晚Mr. Bernanke 会告诉大家不要担心赤字......
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Not so much to add to the story this afternoon as the USD strength continued as expected (on a tcchnical basis). I'm still struggling to understand why we're seeing this level of USD strength - it may be something as silly as the Buffet story (his alleged need to liquidate his large short USD holdings). There is the oil factor, with the sell-off USD positive. But the main argument that I would better understand for a stronger USD - higher interest rates - is simply not happening. If the IMF is arguing that US growth will outpace that of Europe and Japan, why is the USD not weakening when we get one weak US number after another and the Trade Deficit and Budget Deficit woes continue?
So, I'll continue scratching my head at the reasons for the USD strength, but technically I have to admit that it seems here to stay for now unless we see some major reversals very soon. Perhaps Mr. Bernanke can enlighten us this evening on why we shouldn't be worried about the US current account deficit and an ever-weaker USD this evening at his speech at 21:00 GMT.
EUR/USD broke first support at 1.2850, but didn't gain much momentum on that development, as the 1.2800 area is still in tact. A pull back above 1.2850 again would neutralize the situation a bit, but the compass still points south unless 1.2950 is regained. A break below 1.2800 would suggest a try at the 1.2740 area low from February. |  |  |  |  |
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