SAXOBANK 2004年10月21日 技术评论

	美元彻底崩盘。不久欧元将运行到1.2900。 2004年10月21日 技术评论 欧元/美元：反弹前疯狂上涨到1.2625，今天早上继续走高到1.2650附近。短期可能出现回调，但支持在1.2550附近，最后的支持在1.2450。更往上看，欧元下一目标可能是1.2740区间，然后是1.2900顶部。 英镑/美元：在英国零售业数据利好的影响下，今天英镑象火箭一样飞速上涨。目前已停止上涨，支持在1.8180，阻力在1.8450。最终，英镑会挑战1.9100顶部。 美元/瑞朗：正测试八年来的低点1.2135，阻力在 1.2230。瑞朗可能最终运行到1.15。 美元/日元：昨晚走势混乱。日元的强势强化了中央银行的储备，尽管出现大多数日元熊市因素，包括石油价格走强，股票市场走弱，美国数据差劲。107指日可待，很快将会被触发。接下来会有一段时间盘整巩固，因此将停留在108.80阻力之下。但最终美汇日元将运行到105.00。在日本银行企图干涉的谣言下，到时候走势可能变得非常凌厉。 欧元/日元：方向还是不能明确，因为没有跟着跌穿136.00支持，技术走势依然不确定。重回136.50可能带动其测试137.50高点，但跌穿135.50则会测试134.60低点。 澳元/美元：在行情急剧反转前追随欧元疯狂上涨到前期高点0.7358。看起来已经提前突破。如果那是真的，澳元在集聚力量展开又一轮升势之前可能回调到0.7300/20区间，然后一举突破0.7500。 美元/加元：已经走低到1.2420，但是在试图继续下跌之前可能回调到1.2500/20——下一目标1.2320附近。最终，美汇加元将运行到1.2000。 ==============================

	EUR/USD - Blasted higher to 1.2625 before recoiling and heading higher again this morning to around 1.2650. May be getting a bit ahead of itself in the very short term, but support may come in around 1.2550 with ultimate support at 1.2450. Looking higher, the EUR/USD's next target may be the 1.2740 area before later setting its sites on the 1.2900 top. GBP/USD - GBP/USD shot up like a rocket today on positive UK retail sales and stop-running. Support now comes in at 1.8180 and resistance at 1.8450. Eventually, GBP/USD may look to challenge the 1.9100 top. USD/CHF - Is flirting with eight-year lows around 1.2135. 1.2230 is resistance and USD/CHF may make it's way to 1.15 eventually. USD/JPY - came unraveled overnight. The strength in JPY underlines the central bank reserves theme as JPY strengthened despite the presence of numerous, normally JPY-bearish factors, including strong oil prices, weak stock markets, and weak US data. The 107 is within sight and may be hit soon. Some kind of consolidation may follow that nonetheless may stay below 108.80 resistance, but eventually USD/JPY may zero in on the 105.00 level. At times, the going may get choppy on any Bank of Japan intervention rumors. EUR/JPY - can't convincingly decide which way to go as it didn't follow through on the break of 136.00 support and remains in a no-man's land technically. A return through 136.50 would perhaps bring on a test of the 137.50 high, while a fall through 135.50 could bring on a test of the 134.60 low. AUD/USD - Blasted just beyond the 0.7385 recent high in sympathy with EUR/USD before reversing sharply. Looks this may have been a premature breakout. If that is indeed the case, AUD/USD may consolidate back to the 0.7300/20 area before gathering strength for another try and a spill-over to the 0.7500 level. USD/CAD - Has made an impressive move lower to 1.2420, but may consolidate back toward 1.2500/20 before making another try at lower levels - perhaps 1.2320 the next time around. Eventually, USD/CAD may head to 1.2000.