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发表于 2004-6-15 23:40 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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The lowest interest rates in a generation will soon be gone.

The Federal Reserve has given formal notice that short-term interest rates will rise. It's just a matter of when -- maybe at the end of June, maybe in early August, possibly later.

The Fed's rate-setting Open Market Committee left short-term rates alone, as expected. The newsworthy element of Tuesday's meeting was what the Fed said -- or rather, what it didn't say.

The Fed removed the word "patient" from its post-meeting statement, in which it assesses the economy and explains its reason for current rate policy. Since January, the panel had been saying that it could be patient in raising rates. (And for four months before that, it said low rates could remain "for a considerable period.") This time, the word "patient" was missing -- an indication that the economy is heating up. The newly worded statement prepares investors and borrowers for an eventual rate increase.

"At this juncture, with inflation low and resource use slack, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured," the panel wrote. The phrase "policy accommodation" means low rates. In this year's previous statements, the Fed had said it could be "patient in removing its policy accommodation."

There isn't much difference between being patient and moving at a measured pace, but the new phrase is a signal that the Fed is moving toward raising rates gradually. Sending a message that it is keeping an eye on prices, the rate-setting body said, "incoming inflation data have moved somewhat higher, long-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained."



Fed officials, including Chairman Alan Greenspan, had been dropping hints for weeks that the rate-setting panel was becoming more optimistic about the economy, especially in light of strong job creation in March. With these hints came an implicit promise that the Fed wouldn't spring any surprises. The next Fed meetings are June 29-30 and Aug. 10. Observers believe a rate increase will most likely come in the August meeting. The rate increase could happen in June if the job market zooms like a rocket in the next month, or in September or later if the job surge loses momentum.

"I think the story is the wording of the statement," says Bob Walters, vice president of secondary marketing for Quicken Loans. Greenspan has "taken pains to make the Fed more transparent to the markets" so as not to surprise them, he says.

For now, the target federal funds rate will remain 1 percent and the prime rate will remain 4 percent. Rates will stay more or less unchanged on loans tied to the prime rate -- many, but not all, auto loans, credit cards, home equity loans and equity lines of credit.

Rates on 15- and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages respond to the market's expectations about the overall economy. In the last month, long-term mortgage rates have gone up about half a percentage point while the federal funds and prime rates stayed steady.

The federal funds rate, also known as the overnight rate, is what banks charge one another for overnight loans to cover reserves. The Fed indirectly controls the overnight rate by selling and buying securities to add and withdraw cash from the banking system.

Until the first week of April, economists and investors had been predicting that the Fed wouldn't raise rates until the committee's November meeting at the earliest. Then on the first Friday in April came the employment report for March, which said that the economy produced a net 308,000 jobs that month. The report was much stronger than expected. After 30 months of trying to crank the cold economy back to life, it appeared that policymakers in the Fed, Congress and White House finally had gotten the economy started.

The federal funds rate has been under 2 percent since December 2001 as the Fed's way of encouraging businesses and consumers to borrow money and provide oomph to the economy. Congress and the White House have cut income taxes, putting more money in consumers' pockets, and at the same time have gone on a spending spree like a gaggle of teenagers set loose in a shopping mall with their parents' credit cards.

It took much longer than expected for the resulting economic stimulus to bring job creation and inflation, but those signs of revival finally showed themselves in the first three months of this year. Now the Fed is getting ready to raise rates to cool off the economy and keep inflation under control.
发表于 2004-6-15 23:43 | 显示全部楼层
没学过鸟语那个高人来翻一下
 楼主| 发表于 2004-6-15 23:47 | 显示全部楼层
肯定了会加夕.但没有说是记号
发表于 2004-6-16 00:10 | 显示全部楼层
还是会中文的多。请说中文
发表于 2004-6-16 00:24 | 显示全部楼层

著名的金山快译

最低的兴趣率在世代中将会很快不见了。

被给正式的注意美国联准会短期的将会升。 它只是一个物质当 -- 在六月底也许,在八月稍早也许,稍后可能地。

联邦理事会的率- 设定自由市场委员会独自地留下短期的比率,当做期望。 星期二的有报导价值的元素遇见是联邦理事会所说的 -- 或宁可, 什么它不。

联邦理事会将”病人”那个字从它的后会议陈述移开, 它估定经济而且它的理由现在的比率政策。 自从一月以后,嵌板已经说它在升起比率方面可能是忍耐的。 ( 而且达四个月之久在那之前,它说低的比率可以保持 "为一个相当的时期.") 这次,”病人”那个字正在失去 -- 经济正在向上加热的指示。 崭新明白陈述为投资者和借用人最后的比率增加做准备。

" 在这一个接合,藉由胀大低点和资源使用松弛,委员会相信政策住所可能在一个可能的速度被移动被测量,"嵌板写。 片语 "政策住所" 意谓低的比率。 在今年的早先陈述中,联邦理事会已经说它可能是 "在除去它的政策住所方面的病人."

没有很多的不同在忍耐之间而且在一个量过的速度移动,但是新的片语是联邦理事会是的信号向逐渐地升起比率移动。 送一个它正在注意价格的信息,比率- 设定身体说," 收入胀大数据已经移动比较高的,长期的胀大期待似乎已经保持得好包含的某物."



联邦理事会官员, 包括葛林斯潘主席, 已经降低暗示长达数数个星期之久比率- 设定嵌板正在变得更乐观的有关经济的事,在三月的尤其因为强烈的工作创造。 藉由这些暗示来一个联邦理事会不跳任何的惊奇暗示的诺言。 下一个联邦理事会会议是六月 29-30 和八月 10 日。 观察者相信比率增加将会很有可能进来八月会议。 比率增加在六月会发生如果工作市场急速上升喜欢一枚火箭在那在下个月,或在九月或稍后如果工作巨涌失去动力。

"我认为故事是陈述的印字,"鲍伯沃尔特, 中级的行销副总裁因为加快贷款。 葛林斯潘 " 费心使联邦理事会更透明到市场"如此同样地不要使他们吃惊,他。

因为现在,目标联邦的基金率将会保持 1% ,而且最优惠利率将会保持 4% 。 比率将会在被系到最优惠利率的贷款上或多或少停留不变 --多数,但是不全部,汽车借出,信用备置卡片, 回家信用的公正贷款和公正线。

比率在 15之上- 而且 30 年的固定汇票抵押贷款有关全部的经济回应市场的期待。在最后一个月中,长期的已经上涨有关一半的百分点联邦的基金事和主要的比率停留稳定。

联邦的基金估价,也即是通宵的比率,存入银行费用彼此的东西为前晚是贷款包括预备品吗。 联邦理事会藉由卖和买安全并且撤回来自银行业系统的现金间接地控制前晚率。

直到四月的第一个星期, 经济学者和投资者已经预知联邦理事会在最早的不升起比率直到委员会的十一月会议。 在四月星期五在第一上然后来雇用报告三月,说经济那月生产了一张网 308,000个工作。报告比期望加较强壮。在 30个月之后对脾气暴燥的寒冷经济尝试回到生活, 看来联邦理事会的决策者,国会和白宫已经最后使经济被开始。

联邦的基金率是在 2%之下自从 2001 年十二月以后如联邦理事会的方法鼓励生意和消费者借钱而且提供性的魅力给经济。国会和白宫所得税,放消费者的口袋较多的钱,而且同时像一群青少年组合一样的一个开支狂欢在一个购物商场他们的父母信用卡中释放。

它拿更加比较久比较为产生的经济刺激期望在今年的最初三个月内带来工作创造和胀大 , 但是复兴的那些告示最后他们自己。 现在联邦理事会正在准备好升起比率走开冷却经济而且保存在控制下面的胀大。
海纳百川,有容乃大
 楼主| 发表于 2004-6-16 00:31 | 显示全部楼层
不好意思,直接从网上复制的:《

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