5月25日 原油价格继续上涨,美元全线下跌

	5月25日   5月25日 18:00 GMT外汇市场评论   原油价格继续上涨,美元全线下跌 隔夜主要经济数据: 1. 美国4月份成屋销售为6.64M;预期为6.46M 2. 美国5月份消费信心指数为93.2;预期为94 3. 德国5月IFO景气判断指数自4月的96.3下降至96.1,符合市场预期   隔夜市场分析: 近期油价的不断上涨使得市场担心美国的经济受创，周二美元兑各主要货币全线下跌。受美国稍差于预期的5月份消费信心指数的影响, 非美货币继续大幅度上升, 连续突破上升阻力，创出几周新高。 今日操作建议: 预期非美货币短期将继续得到市场买盘的支持。但是市场仍然普遍期待美国将在六月底调升利息，所以，一旦美国方面有利好消息传出，必定给美元带来支持。美元中期仍然看强，警惕非美货币的获利回吐。   欧元: 欧元区昨晚公布的德国IFO指数基本符合市场的预期，但由于美元在昨天的交易中，全线受挫。 欧元表现的比较强劲。此外，央行执行委员会官员周二表示，ECB的利率政策为中性。并没有对欧元的升势，造成打压。 技术分析:欧元在短期走势持续维持在上升通道内。 欧元兑美元的阻力为1.2150然后是1.2180; 支持位为1.2080, 然后是1.2020。 预期波动区间: 1.2160-1.2050   日元: 由于昨天美元昨天全面走软，使日元在昨天受到买盘支持。 技术分析: 美元兑日元虽然中长期仍然处与上升通道， 但在短期维持在下降的调整区间。预计美元日元的阻力在113.30然后是114.00,而支持位则在110.80 预期波动区间: 113.50-110.80   英镑:由于英国升息的潜力和美国疲弱的消费信心指数，昨天英镑兑美元上涨约1%， 是近几周的高点。此外，由于英国是石油的净出口国，原油价格的高涨，也给英镑带来支持。技术分析: 预计英镑近期仍有较大的上升空间，阻力为1.8260然后是1.8350; 而主力支持位是1.8000附近,然后是1.7890。 预期波动区间: 1.8260-1.8000   澳元和纽币: 昨天纽澳币的走势,也应美元全面走软而受益.纷纷上升到近几周的高点,。 技术分析:澳币: 短期维持在小的上升通道内，支持位在0.7030然后是0.6980, 阻力则为0.7130然后是0.7160;纽元:支持位位于0.6135然后是0.6080。阻力则在0.6200，然后是0.6240。 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7160-0.6980;纽元 0.6240-0.6130   以上评论完成于18:30 GMT; Beijing 2:30AM

	Market was worried about US economy would hurt by the high oil prices; dollar was weak against all major currencies. As US consumer confident was not as good as expected, when the data released, dollar continually weaker broadly. All major currencies was break thought original resistance level to get the new high on Tuesday’s trading.   EURO/USD: As Germany IFO data out roughly as expected, euro has not got any pressure by the market. With weak dollar trade last night, euro was keeping strength. And also, ECB officer announced that they would not readjust central rate in the hurry, so euro was not feel any pressure.  Technical views: Euro was keeping in the upward trend in the short time. The Euro resistance level is 1.2150, and then 1.2180; Support level is 1.2080, and then 1.2020. Trading range: 1.2160-1.2050 USD/JPY: As weak dollar trading on yesterday, Yen was getting some market support. Technical view: As dollar yen major resistance level is about 113.30 and then 114.00.  Support is above 110.80. Trading range: 113.50-110.80 GBP/USD: As the potential interest rate hike in UK and weak consumer confident in US; sterling was gain almost 1% against dollar as several weeks high. And also, the British economy was also gains some advantage by those days high oil prices, because UK is oil outputs country. All those support sterling to gain more against greenback.  Technical view:  The resistance level is near about 1.8260. The next support level is 1.8000, and then 1.7890. Trading range: 1.8260-1.8000 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: Both Aussie and Kiwi, was getting some profit on weak dollar yesterday. And also, they were climbing to the new high on last night. Technical view:  Aussie:  In the short term, Aussie was in the upward trend. The support level would be 0.7030, and then 0.6980 and the resistance level would be 0.7130and then 0.7160; Kiwi dollar:  The next support of Kiwi is 0.6140, and then 0.6080, Resistance level would be 0.6200. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7160-0.6980; NZD/USD: 0.6240-0.6130