5月20日 原油价格居高不下， 美元借机小幅回弹

	5月20日  18:00 GMT外汇市场评论   原油价格居高不下， 美元借机小幅回弹 隔夜主要经济数据:   1.        美国费城联邦储备银行5月份制造商指数为23.8;预期为30.5 2.        美国4月份领先指标为0.1%;预期为0.2% 3.        美国本周初次申请救济金人数为345K;预期为330K 隔夜市场分析: 虽然美国方面的经济数据不如预期，但是美元仍然全线得到提镇。其主要原因是由于市场担心原油价格继续飙升可能破坏亚洲的经济成长, 从而影响全球的经济复苏的步伐。此外，升息因素也是昨天 美元兑各主要货币均有回升的原因之一。 今日操作建议:  由于欧元，纽,澳币并没有突破关键价位，市场方向仍然不明确。 美元中期仍然看强。 市场仍以区间交易为主, 建议短线操作, 或市场观望。 欧元:欧洲方面依然没有主要数据在昨天出台。由于市场考虑到创纪录的原油价格，将影响欧洲区国家在亚洲的投资，导致欧元昨天并没有很强的市场人气。 技术方面:由于欧元对美元的回调已经走到了下降通道的顶部, 但是一直受到强大的阻力而没有突破， 导致昨晚欧元的跌势。随着欧元在跌破1.1940后，欧元抛压增大。欧元兑美元的阻力为1.1940然后是1.2020; 支持位为1.1870, 然后是1.1800. 预期波动区间: 1.1970-1.1800 日元: 随着日本股市周四有小幅度逆转下跌, 日元兑美元也回吐了稍早的涨幅。受大盘影响，但回吐力度不大。技术分析: 美元兑日元支持位在112.30,若能有效突破, 市场止损盘则将把美元日兑日元拉到112以下.   上方阻力在114.50然后是115.00. 预期波动区间: 114.50-112.30 英镑: 英镑昨天兑美元整体下跌幅度达1%。 跟随其它各主要高息货币下跌和担心原油价格的上涨，十得投资者纷纷获利平仓，打压了昨天的英镑。技术分析: 预计英镑将在今天交易中将进行横盘整理. 继续维持在1.7890-1.7600的区间波动. 上升阻力为1.7820,然后是1.8000; 而主力支持位是1.7620附近, 预期波动区间: 1.7820-1.7620 澳元和纽币: 受居高不下的原油价格的影响，作为高收益货币澳,纽币在昨天也回吐了先前的涨幅。预计纽，澳币将继续受到打压。技术分析: 澳,纽币并没有突破上方的重要阻力位，继续保持在下降通道内。倘若能有效突破, 则仍有可能继续反攻。澳币: 支持位在0.6830然后是0.6730(FIBO76.4%的回调), 阻力则为0.6970然后是0.7080;纽元: 也处于下降通到中.支持位位于0.6010 然后是0.5980。阻力则在0.6100,然后是0.6150. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7020-0.6830;纽元 0.6100-0.5980 以上评论完成于18:30 GMT; Beijing 2:30AM

	Although US fundamental data were not as good as marker expected, dollar was in a broad-based rebound from the precious session’s steep losses. The main reason was investors were worried about the record high of oil prices would hurt the growth of Asia economic and then even affected the world economic recovery.  Another reason bring the retracement of dollar today was the expectation of US rate hike. EURO/USD: Followed the good news from England’s MPC policymakers 9:0 voted hike the rate by 25 pips; Euro was also getting the power to increase against dollar. Technical views: euro was building up base from 1.1940, and now was staying right at top of down side trend, which increase the sell-off pressure of euro. Euro resistance level is 1.2080, and then 1.2160; Support level is 1.1940, and then 1.1870. Trading range: 1.2080-1.1940 USD/JPY: Followed by rebound of Nikkei stock form two days climbing, yen erased early gains and fell against dollar. Technical view: As dollar yen major support is above 112.30, if break though 112.30; Resistance is about 114.50 and then 115.00.   Trading range: 114.50-112.30 GBP/USD: Sterling was losing 1% against dollar, as dollar rebound broad-based yesterday. By followed other high yield currencies and worried about the high oil price, sterling was under the sell-off pressure. Technical view: We think, Gable would have some market consolidation in today’s trade and would still move in between of 1.7890-1.7600. The resistance level is near about 1.7820 and then 1.8000. The next support level is 1.7620 Trading range: 1.7820-1.7620 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: Because investors were concern about high prices of oil could hurt the economy recovery, as commodity currency, both Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell-off pressure. Technical view:  Aussie and Kiwi are all stay in down side trend, which increased their sell-off pressure Aussie:  The resistance level would be 0.6970 and then 0.7080 and the support level would be 0.6830, and then 0.6730; Kiwi dollar:  The next support of Kiwi is 0.6010, and then 0.5980, Resistance level would be 0.6100, and then 0.6150. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7020-0.6830; NZD/USD: 0.6100-0.5980 以上评论完成于18:30 GMT; Beijing 2:30AM

	波幅范围很大，应该不会出这范围。