张大硕-外汇市场评论

	5月17日18:00 GMT 外汇市场评论   隔夜主要经济数据：美国纽约州5月企业景气指数为30.2，预期为34。 隔夜市场分析：由于上周日发生在土耳其和伊拉克的爆炸，引发了市场对地缘政治因素重新评估；而创历史新高的原油价格，也使得非美货币在早盘走出一轮升势。后来市场的获利回吐，又使美元重新聚集了部分人气。整体市场方向仍然不明确，市场期待本周后期更多的数据出台。 今日操作建议：虽然中期美元依然看强，但短期时市场期待明确方向。区间交易为主，建议短线操作，或市场观望。 欧元：昨天欧洲方面没有主要数据出台，周日发生的土耳其爆炸案，和创历史新高的原油价格都是昨天推动欧元兑美元反攻的动力，美元兑欧元下挫近1%。后市伴随市场获利回吐的操作有所回调。技术方面，欧元兑美元在日线图上出现了“小双底”的上升信号，预计短期欧元仍然有上升风险，阻力为1.2090，然后是1.2160；支持位为1.1970，然后是1.1880。预期波动区间：1.2090-1.1970。   日元：出于对地缘政治的担忧和受世界原油价格创历史新高的影响，加重了美元在昨天早盘的卖盘压力，而后期的获利回吐则又将美元日元拉回114以上。昨天美元日元的走势，整体维持区间波动。技术层面来看，美元兑日元支持位在114.00，然后是113.40，而上方阻力在114.50，然后是115.50( 自2001年11月的高点到今年3月的38.2%的回调)。 预期波动区间：115.00-113.40 。 英镑：由于英国方面昨天没有主要数据公布，市场普遍期待将在周三举行的英国货币政策委员会后公布会议纪要，为是否加息提供新的线索，进而影响英镑的走势。上周日发生在土耳其的爆炸，恰巧发生在英国首相布莱尔即将访问土耳其的前夕，从而引发了市场对缘政治因素重新评估，也支持了英镑兑美元的升势，兑美元上升约1%。技术分析：上升阻力为1.7780，然后是1.7820；主力支持位是1.7490。预期波动区间：1.7780-1.7570。   澳元和纽币：由于市场重燃对地缘政治的担忧，欧元和英镑带领着澳纽币在昨天继续走出回调行情，但市场的支持并不明显。技术分析：澳币继续保持在下降通道内，仍然有市场抛压。支持位在0.6820，然后是0.6730， 阻力则为0.6980。纽元也处于下降通道中，支持位位于0.5910，然后是0.5860；阻力则在0.6050，然后是0.6150。预期波动区间：澳元0.6980-0.6800，纽元 0.6100-0.5920。 以上评论完成于18:30 GMT; Beijing 2:30AM [ Last edited by 张大硕 on 2004-5-19 at 12:04 AM ]

	今天早上忘了放了．．．和和． 详情可参阅ＴＯＭ外汇评论．．．．

	Bombings in Turkey and Iraq in the weekend brought geopolitical risks into investors’ concern. And the ever rising oil price also boosted all major currencies strength against dollar. Right before US close, profit-taking was given back some lost ground to dollar. Market was still seeking some more economic data and news as a signals of future trading. EURO/USD: Yesterday, as still no major data out in market from Europe. Sunday’s Turkish bombs and new records high of oil prices boosted up the euro against dollar almost 1%. The market profit-taking pull the price down right before US closed. Technical views:  Euro shows “dabble-bottom” by chart reading. So Euro might be had some retracement. Euro resistance level is 1.2090, and then 1.2160; Support level is 1.1970, and then 1.1880. Trading range: 1.2090-1.1970 USD/JPY: By market concern about geopolitical and new records high of oil prices, dollar yen was under the sell-off pressure. And then, the market profit-taking pull dollar-yen back up to 114.Dollar Yen was still trade in range market, yesterday. Technical view: As dollar yen efficiently up break 114 as perverse high, major support is above 114.00, and then 113.40. Resistance is about 114.50, and then 115.50. (As FIBO 38.2% retracement)         Trading range: 115.00-113.40 GBP/USD: There was no major data out in UK. As market was expected Monetary Policy Committee members announced their discussion which would provide clues on how much the rate need to move. There were many support of sterling at low. And also the Turkey’s bomb explosions just before British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s visit; and new high of oil prices pushed up the Cable up to gain nearly 1% against dollar. Technical view:  The resistance level is near about 1.7780 and then 1.7820. The next support level is 1.7490. Trading range: 1.7780-1.7570 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: By market re-concern about geopolitical, followed lead of Euro and Sterling, both Aussie and Kiwi was fighting back against dollar. As high yield currencies, there were no clear supports for Aussie and Kiwi. Technical view:  Aussie: Aussie was still staying in the down side trend. The resistance level would be 0.6980 and the support level would be 0.6820, and then 0.6730; Kiwi dollar: Kiwi was also in the down side trend. The next support of Kiwi is 0.5910, and then 0.5860, Resistance level would be 0.6050, and then 0.6150. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.6980-0.6800; NZD/USD: 0.6100-0.5920 以上评论完成于18:30 GMT; Beijing 2:30AM