5月15日 美国数据继续温和, 非美货币小幅回调

	美国数据继续温和, 非美货币小幅回调 隔夜主要经济数据: 1. 美国3月份商业存货为0.7%;预期为0.5% 2. 美国4月份消费者信心指数为(CPI)为0.2%;预期为0.3% 3. 美国4月份工业生产为0.8%;预期为0.5% 4. 美国5月份密西根大学消费信心指数为94.2;预期为96   隔夜市场分析: 昨天, 亚洲,欧洲方面并没有主要数据出台, 美国的经济数据成为市场的交易坐标.由于先前的市场预期, 该数据将支持美国的升息预期, 美元早盘走强,非美货币继续遭到抛压; 然而后期数据公布后, 则与预期差强人意, 非美货币伺机反弹. 但周五市场的获利平仓操作,又将非美拉回其主要的交易区间. 后市并没有明确今后的交易方向,各货币保持稳定.   今日操作建议: 虽然中期美元依然看强,但短期时市场期待明确的交易方向.区间交易为主, 建议短线操作, 或观望.   欧元:昨天, 欧洲方面仍然没有主要数据出台, 美元继续领导市场的走势. 由于美国不十分理想的消费者信心指数和密西根大学消费信心指数,导致欧元兑美元完成当日回调上涨近0.6%. 而周五的获利平仓又将欧元拉回到1.1900下方. 技术方面: 欧元兑美元仍然保持在1.1980-1.1760的区间内. 阻力为1.1940,然后是1.1980; 支持位为1.1760, 然后是1.1730. 预期波动区间: 1.1940-1.1730   日元: 昨天的美元兑日元基本摆脱了日本股市对汇市的影响. 美元兑日元也基本跟随市场波动,后市受到抛压,整体仍维持区间交易. 技术分析:美元日元在有效突破114.00阻力后, 美元兑日元支持位在114.00,然后是113.40而上方阻力在114.50,然后是115.50.( 自2001年11月的高点到今年3月的38.2%的回调) 预期波动区间: 115.00-113.40   英镑: 由于英国方面昨天没有主要数据出台, 美元成为市场的焦点. 由于预期数字不错, 在昨天美国消费信心指数(CPI)公布之前, 美元提前上扬, 导致英镑兑美元跌至1.7490的菲波拉其50%重要支持位. 然而在CPI公布后以及美国略差于预期的密西根大学消费者信心指数公布后, 英镑大举反攻. 一度上扬至1.7650的市场阻力价位. 后市受周五市场获利平仓的举措而小幅度回调.技术分析: 由于近期英镑仍然维持在下降通道内,预计短期仍受抛压. 上升阻力为1.7680,然后是1.7780; 而主力支持位是1.7490. 预期波动区间: 1.7680-1.7490   澳元和纽币: 在美国数据公布后, 欧元和英镑的上扬, 带领澳,纽币在昨天继续走出回调行情.尽管作为高收益货币, 澳币纽币在本周遭到重创, 但周五的反弹仍然给市场带来亮点. 恢复了部分人气. 技术分析: 澳币继续保持在下降通道内, 仍然有市场抛压. 支持位在0.6820然后是0.6730, 阻力则为0.6980;纽元: 也处于下降通到中. 支持位位于0.5980, 然后是0.5920.阻力则在0.6050,然后是0.6150. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.6980-0.6800;纽元 0.6100-0.5980   以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM

	In the morning, dollar was keeping strength; major currencies were still under the sell-off pressure. As no major data and news coming from Asia and Europe, US data was continually rule the market. As weaker data out in US market, Major currencies were fighting back against dollar. Friday’s profit-taking were pulled back majors back to the original trend and given back some early profits, as no clear signal of future trading. EURO/USD: Yesterday, as still no major data out in market from Europe, dollar was continually leading the market. As weaker than expectation on CPI and Michigan sentiment, euro was pulled back over 0.6% against dollar on yesterday’s trade. Meanwhile, the market retracement on Friday was given back some early profits. Euro was pulled back under 1.1900. Technical views:  Euro was still in the trading range which is 1.1980-1.1760. Euro resistance level is 1.1940, and then 1.1980; Support level is 1.1760, and then 1.1730. Trading range: 1.1940-1.1730 USD/JPY: Dollar against Yen was almost getting rid of the effect form Nikkei market. And also, followed market when US data out. Dollar Yen was still trade in range market. Technical view: As dollar yen efficiently up break 114 as perverse high, major support is above 114.00, and then 113.40. Resistance is about 114.50, and then 115.50.(as FIBO 38.2% retracement)         Trading range: 115.50-113.40 GBP/USD: There was no major data out in UK. Dollar still lead the market yesterday. Right before the CPI release, as the good market expectation, sterling was pull down to 1.7490(as 50% retracement support) against dollar. With Michigan Sentiment data out weaker than expectation, sterling get the power to pull back sterling to about1.7650. Then profit taken drive sterling back to range. Technical view:  Sterling was still in the down side trend.  The resistance level is near about 1.7680 and then 1.7780. The next support level is 1.7490. Trading range: 1.7680-1.7490 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: Right after US data out in the market, followed lead of Euro and Sterling, both Aussie and Kiwi was fighting back against dollar. As high yield currencies, Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell-off pressure in the whole week. But Friday’s retracement was given bank some loosing ground to both currencies. Technical view:  Aussie: Aussie was still staying in the down side trend. The resistance level would be 0.6980 and the support level would be 0.6820, and then 0.6730; Kiwi dollar: Kiwi was also in the down side trend. The next support of Kiwi is 0.5980, and then 0.5920, Resistance level would be 0.6050, and then 0.6150. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.6980-0.6800; NZD/USD: 0.6100-0.5980 以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM