5月12日 外汇市场评论

	5月12日 6:00AM 外汇市场评论 英国数据意外下跌, 非美维持区间交易   隔夜主要经济数据: 英国3月份工制造业产出为-0.3%;预计为0.6% 隔夜市场分析: 昨天,英国3月份制造业数据意外下跌, 受该消息的影响, 英镑遭到打压. 欧洲和美国外汇市场方面, 都没有主要数据出台.美元在缺乏市场消息的情况下,兑其它各主要货币则在区间内波动.   今日操作建议: 警惕非美货币将有小范围回调的风险, 中期美元依然看强, 建议寻高出货.   欧元:昨天欧洲方面没有主要数据出台. 欧元兑美元保持在区间波动. 技术方面: 阻力为1.1930,然后是1.1980; 支持位为1.1760. 预期波动区间: 1.1930-1.1760   日元:受美元升息潜力的影响:投资于日本股市的美国贷款纷纷回归,也是近来拉升美元兑日元走高的原因. 日本昨天日本股市略微反弹, 日元回吐了部分升幅.但仍然保持在交易区间内波动. 技术分析:美元日元的支持位在112.10,然后是110.90而上方阻力在114.50,然后是115.50. 预期波动区间: 114.50-112.10   英镑:昨天的英国3月份制造业生产数据以外下滑0.3%; 而预期则为上升0.6%. 受该数据的影响, 英镑受到抛压.使得市场怀疑英国的加息前景. 数据公布后, 英镑兑美元创下0.02美元的跌幅. 技术分析:预计短期上升阻力为1.7620然后是1.7820; 而主力支持位是1.7500. 预期波动区间: 1.7620-1.7500   澳元和纽币: 昨天, 由于欧洲和美国市场没有主要数据出台.澳,纽币兑美元保持区间交易. 并伴随有小幅度回调. 技术分析: 澳币支持位在0.6820, 阻力则为0.7040. 纽元: 支持位位于0.6000, 远期看0.5910.阻力则在0.6130 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7040-0.6890;纽元 0.6130-0.6000   以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM [ Last edited by 张大硕 on 2004-5-12 at 06:44 AM ]

	There was no major news in the market yesterday. Dollar was keep extending gains against all major currencies on the back of last Friday’s surprisingly strong US job report. EURO/USD: There was no major data or news out of Europe market. Euro was kept in range.  Technical views:  Euro resistance level is 1.1930, and then 1.1980; Support level is 1.1760. Trading range: 1.1930-1.1760 USD/JPY: As affect by US potential interest hike, investors was close their position in Nikkei and pay bank to US loan, as their funding costs look certain to rise earlier. That was the main reason of recently high Dollar/Yen. Technical view: Major support is above 112.10, and then 110.90. Resistance is about 114.50, and then 115.50.       Trading range: 114.50-112.10 GBP/USD: After a surprise 0.3% fall in UK manufacturing output in March, sterling was sell-off by market. Because of cast doubts over expectations of interest rate hikes, sterling was down nearly 2 cents against dollar. Technical view:  The resistance level is near about 1.7620 and then 1.7820. The next support level is 1.7500. Trading range: 1.7620-1.7500 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: Without any key data from US or Europe market, both Aussie and Kiwi were still keeping in the range. Technical view:   The resistance level would be 0.7040 and the support level would be 0.6820; Kiwi dollar: the next support of Kiwi is 0.6000, and far to see 0.5910, Resistance level would be 0.6130. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7040-0.6890; NZD/USD: 0.6130-0.6000 AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM