5月7日 美元大举反攻, 市场静待美国4月就业数据

	隔夜主要经济数据: 1. 英国央行宣布提高利率25个基点; 2. 欧洲央行宣布维持利率2％不变; 3. 美国第一季度非农业生产力指数为3.5%;预期为3.5%; 4. 美国本周初次申请救济金人数为315K; 预计为335K;   隔夜市场分析:昨天欧洲方面利息数据成为市场关注的焦点. 尽管欧洲央行的利息维持不变； 英国加息0.25个基点, 都符合先前的预期. 但美国本周初次申请救济金人数和第一季度非农业生产力指数都显示美国基本面消息依然强劲. 并加强了对周五4月份非农业就业数据向好的普遍预期. 从而引发美元今天走出的大举反攻的升势.   今日操作建议: 市场静待本周五, 美国的非农业就业人数的数据. 该数据将引导市场对美国近期加息的预期, 除非该数据特别好, 美元将大幅度走强. 否则, 非美货币有回调风险.   欧元: 昨日,欧洲央行公布维持利率不变, 符合市场预期. 但随着美国强劲的本周初次认领救济金人数公布后, 市场普遍认为周五的非农业就业人数仍然向好.美元的反攻,导致了欧元有获利回吐的卖盘. 技术方面:欧元在跌破1.2080的支持位后, 市场止损, 继续抛售欧元.后期伴有逢低的买盘. 阻力为1.2180 ; 支持位为1.2030, 然后是1.1970. 预期波动区间: 1.2140-1.1980   日元:随着日本假期的结束, 日本市场步入正轨. 昨天, 日本财务省表示,日本央行在4月份的交易中并没有抛售日元.但同时表示, 干预政策并没有改变.昨日随美元的大幅度反攻, 日元美元也大幅度反弹. 技术分析: 在美元日元上破109.30并站稳后, 其支持位在109.30, 然后是108.30而上方阻力在109.75, 然后是110.50. 预期波动区间: 110.50-109.30   英镑:英镑在英国央行调高利率25个基点后小幅上升,和市场预期一致. 英镑在加息后微幅走强. 在美国强劲的本周初次认领救济金人数公布后, 英镑有获利回吐的卖盘. 技术分析: 英镑基本维持在原来的区间波动. 预计短期上升阻力为1.8020; 而主力支持位1.7850, 然后是1.7770. 预期波动区间: 1.8020-1.7850   澳元和纽币: 由于美元昨晚的反弹行情,投资者的观望态度, 使得澳,纽币并没有获得有效的市场支撑. 澳,纽币在跟随欧元英镑在昨天全面走软.技术分析: 澳元主力支持在0.7170附近,然后是0.7080.阻力则为0.7320. 纽元: 支持位位于0.6230.阻力则在0.6370. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7280_0.7150;纽元 0.6370_0.6230   以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM

	Yesterday, market was focused on the interest rate report form Europe. As ECB keep rate stay at 2%; and BOE raised his rate 0.25pips to 4.25%; all of these were as same as market expectation. With US job data and non-farm productivity data were quirt strong; increase the expectation on Friday’s non farm payroll data would also be good. Dollar was fainting back against all major currencies, on today’s trade. EURO/USD: Yesterday, ECB announced to keep rate unchanged, which as same as expected. With the strong US job data released, increased the market expectation on Friday’s non farm payroll data will be good. Euro was loosing ground against dollar, with some profit taken. Technical views: Once Euro break down through 1.2080, market stop loss order made euro under the sell-off pressure. But some buy order push euro back right above 1.2080. Euro resistance level is 1.2180; Support level is 1.2030, and then 1.1970 Trading range: 1.2140-1.1980 USD/JPY: Ever since the golden holiday was finished yesterday, market on Yen was back to normal. As announced by Japanese Finance Ministry Official, they had not selling yen in April. But they will not change their currently stance on intervention. Followed dollar strength, Dollar yen was also push up by market. Technical view: Once Dollar Yen stay steady above 109.30. Major support is above 109.30, and then 108.30. Resistance is about 109.75 and then 110.50 Trading range: 110.50-109.30 GBP/USD: Sterling rose against Euro and dollar after BOE raised interest rates a quarter point yesterday. Although, market had been nearly unanimous in predicting the rat hike, once the news released, sterling was still pushed up by market. When strong US job data out, some profit taken pull back sterling against dollar. Technical view: The resistance level is still near about 1.8020. The next support level is 1.7850; and then 1.7770. Trading range: 1.7980-1.7770 AUD/USD; NZD/USD:  With the dollar strength, yesterday, by flowed the lead of Euro and Sterling, both Aussie and Kiwi was losing their ground. Market was still waiting for Friday’s non-farm payroll data, both Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell-off pressure. Technical view:  Major support of Aussie would be 0.7170 and then 0.7080; the resistance level would be 0.7320; Kiwi dollar: the next support of Kiwi is 0.6230, Resistance level would be 0.6370. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7280-0.7150; NZD/USD: 0.6370-0.6230

	拜读

	呵呵……

	大鹏老师说说日元好吗

	今天日元会到什麽位置

	呵呵，真的赵大鹏先生光临！欢迎。

	本人操作告白： 本人刚才进了日元110.29（实盘/1/5仓位），与前日沽出差价1.5日圆，个人认为强支撑在112.00，届时在重仓持有。

	感謝~

	谢谢