5月１日 美国基本面依然强劲, 大盘交易以区间为主

	隔夜市场分析: 昨日,欧洲方面没有主要数据, 美国基本面消息继续左右市场. 在美国3月份个人花费指数公布不如预期后, 欧元上破主力阻力位1.1980, 带动其他非美纷纷走出反弹行情. 后市,在密西根大学消费信心指数和芝加哥采购经理人指数公布略好于预期后, 大盘则有获利回吐的操作.昨晚的美国指数同时表明, 美国基本面依然强劲.   隔夜主要经济数据: 1.        美国3月份个人花费指数为0.4%预期为0.7% 2.        美国3月份个人收入指数为0.4%;预期为0.4% 3.        美国4月份密西根大学消费信心指数为94.2;预期为94 4.        美国4月份芝加哥采购经理人指数(PMI)为63.9;预期为61. 今日操作建议:区间交易为主, 美元中期看强.   欧元: 由于昨天欧洲方面并没有主要数据出台, 美国方面,基本面数据仍然强劲, 但欧元走出一轮回调走势. 技术方面分看, 由于欧元一经突破1.1980的头-肩-底的’颈’线后, 止损盘使得欧元立即上探, 但后市不曾站稳于1.2上方, 预计欧元中期仍有下跌风险. 阻力位位于1.2030,支持位为1.1950, 然后是1.1900 预期波动区间: 1.2030-1.1900   日元:由于担心中国政府放缓经济发展步伐, 日本股市周五收低. 也令日元走软. 受美国较好的基本面的数据影响, 美元日元也有较大涨幅.日本仍然处于黄金周假期交易中.交易相对平淡. 技术分析: 支持位在109.50.然后是108.30.而上方阻力在111.10.然后是111.50. 预期波动区间: 111.00-109.50   英镑:由于周五英国方面没有主要数据,美元走向仍然是市场的焦点.在美国公布疲弱的个人消费数据后, 美元应声下跌. 而后在美国较好的密西根大学消费信心指数公布后, 美元又受到提振, 英镑在后市跟随欧元回吐先前的涨幅. 技术分析: 在英国长周末前, 投资者多以平仓型交易为主.英镑倘若不能有效突破1.7810的主要阻力,短期将有下跌压力. 预计 短期上升阻力为1.7810然后是1.7940; 而主力支持位1.7620. 预期波动区间: 1.7940-1.7620   澳元和纽币: 受美国良好基本面数据的影响, 澳,纽币在昨天晚些时候继续承受抛压. 后市伴随有获利回吐的操作. 预计中期, 中国总理, 温家宝关于放缓经济发展速度的讲话依然打压高息货币. 尽管纽币加息, 澳币也尚有加息潜力, 但纽,澳币仍有卖盘压力. 技术分析: 澳元主力支持在0.7170附近,然后是0.7080.阻力则为0.7280. 纽元: 支持位位于0.62,( (去年9月低点到今年2月高位的61.8%回调);然后是0.6100附近.阻力则在0.6330. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7280_0.7170;纽元 0.6330_0.6200   以上评论完成于AKL6:00AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:00AM [ Last edited by 张大硕 on 2004-5-1 at 09:00 AM ]

	Yesterday, there was no major data form Europe. US data rule the market. Since Euro broken the major support level, 1.1980, leading all other major currencies fight back against dollar. After that, all majors had some retracement right before market closed. EURO/USD: Yesterday, there was no major dada form Europe. US fundamental data was still strong. But Euro was fighting back on Friday. Technical view: Once Euro was breaking the ‘neck line’ as reverse head-shoulder at 1.1980, euro was jumping up rapidly, but was not stay comfortably above 1.2. In the middle term euro would still have sell-off risk. Resistance level is 1.2030; support level is 1.1950, and then 1.1900. Trading range: 1.2030-1.1900 USD/JPY: As Japanese share prices fell on worries about China attempts to cool down economy, Yen was weak on Friday. US good fundamental data were also drive dollar up against yen. Because of Japan was still in Golden Week holiday, market on Yen was quiet.  Technical view: Major support is above 109.50.then 108.30. Resistance is about 111.10, and then will be 111.50 Trading range: 111.00-109.50 GBP/USD: In the absence of the UK data on Friday, investors were still focused on Dollar trades. After weak personal spending data, dollar was drop immediately. And then, since University of Michigan confidence number out was better than expectation, dollar was getting back strength against sterling. Followed by Euro leads, sterling was also given back the earlier profits. Technical view: Before London ends, investors squared their position for long weekend. In short term, Sterling would still have sell-off pressure. The next support level is 1.7620; and the resistance level is near about 1.7810 and 1.7940. Trading range: 1.7940-1.7620 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: As the impact of US good fundamental data, both Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell-off pressure. Market was trading like profit taken on Friday. Because of China prime minister Wen JiaBao attempted to cooler the economy, as commodity currencies, Aussie and Kiwi was still under pressure. Technical view:  Major support of Aussie would be 0.7170 and then 0.7080; the resistance level would be 0.7280; Kiwi dollar: the next support of Kiwi is 0.62, as 61.8% FIBO retracement form the low at Sep.2003 to the high at Feb. this year; and then is 0.61. Resistance level would be 0.6330. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7270-0.7170; NZD/USD: 0.6330-0.6200

	不错，顶！

	仅反弹而已

	谢谢！！！！！

	Originally posted by joni007 at 2004-5-1 02:44 PM:

	支持！谢谢1

	感謝