4月30日 6:00AM 大盘激烈震荡，美元后市走软

	隔夜主要经济数据:1.美国第一季度国民生产总值(GDP)为4.2%;预期为5.0%; 2.美国本周初次申请救济金人数为338K;预期为343K;   隔夜市场分析: 昨日,欧洲方面没有主要数据, 美国消息左右市场. 由于先前对美国GDP的良好预期, 使得美元开盘走强. 而美国公布的经济数据增幅令人失望, 导致美元后市大幅度走软.   今日操作建议:小心回调风险, 建议短线操作, 或观望.   欧元: 由于昨天欧洲方面并没有主要数据出台, 在公布美国GDP数据后, 欧元大幅度上扬. 技术方面分看, 由于欧元仍处在下跌通到中, 中期仍有下跌趋势. 而短期头-肩-底的图象显示, 欧元对美元有回调风险. 阻力位位于1.1980, 然后是1.2;支持位为1.1860, 然后是1.1790. 预期波动区间: 1.1980-1.1800   日元:由于受美国较差的数据影响, 非美货币纷纷大幅度上扬; 美元日元有较大跌幅.后市略微回稳.技术分析: 支持位在109.50.然后是108.30.而上方阻力在111.10.然后是112.00 预期波动区间: 111.00-109.50   英镑: 由于美国数据令人失望, 带有加息题材的英镑兑美元昨日从4个月低点反弹, 涨幅约0.02个美元. 英国的房屋价格继续攀升;4月房价上升约2.1%; 消费信心也明显好转,并在今年首次回升; 上述数据支持了英国央行下周升息的普遍预期. 英镑继续受到提振. 技术分析: 英镑中期可能进一步走出上扬走势,短期将有下跌压力. 预计将在1.8150-1.7620的大区间内波动.短期上升阻力为1.7800然后是1.7940; 而主力支持位1.7620. 预期波动区间: 1.7940-1.7620   澳元和纽币: 受美国数据的影响, 澳纽币在昨天晚些时候走出一轮升势. 纽西兰储备银行昨天早提高官方利率25个基点至5.5%.市场反应平平. 由于黄金价格近期继续下跌, 中期澳,纽币继续有卖盘压力. 技术分析: 澳元主力支持在0.7150附近,然后是0.7080.阻力则为0.7270然后是0.7370. 纽元支持位位于0.62,然后是0.6100附近.阻力则在0.6330. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7270_0.7080;纽元 0.6330_0.6150   4月30日 6：00AM( GMT+12); ＝北京时间2:00AM [ Last edited by 张大硕 on 2004-4-30 at 06:27 AM ]

	Yesterday, there was no major data form Europe. US data rule the market. In early trade, investors was expected good US GDP, dollar was strength at London open. Since weak US data out, all majors were jump up rapidly. EURO/USD: Yesterday, there was no major dada form Europe. Euro surged higher against dollar after US weak GDP released. Technical view: Euro still trade in downside trend, in the middle term. But in short term, the reverse head-shoulder chart, euro would have some retracement.   Resistance level is 1.1980 then 1.2; support level is 1.1860, and then 1.1790. Trading range: 1.1980-1.1800 USD/JPY: Because of the weak US data, major currencies had a big jump against dollar. Dollar Yen was drop down a figure. Technical view: Major support is above 109.50.then 108.30. Resistance is about 111.10, and then will be 112.00   Trading range: 111.00-109.50 GBP/USD: After US disappointing economic data, sterling pulled up nearly 0.02US cents   form 4 month low against dollar. As British house prices rose 2.1% in April; and consumer confidence was also increased; all those data supported expectations on rate hike in next week. Sterling was also getting support. Technical view: In middle term. Cable would keep strength in the wide trading range 1.8150-1.7620, but sterling would still have sell-off pressure in short term. The next support level is 1.7620; and the resistance level is near about 1.7800 and 1.7940. Trading range: 1.7940-1.7620 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: As the impact of US weak data, both Aussie and Kiwi was fighting back against dollar. RBNZ announced in early morning to raise rate to 5.5%. As high yield, both Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell-off pressure. Technical view:  Major support of Aussie would be 0.7150 and then 0.7080; the resistance level would be 0.7270 and then 0.7370; Kiwi dollar: the next support of Kiwi is 0.62, and then is 0.61. Resistance level would be 0.6330. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7270-0.7080; NZD/USD: 0.6330-0.6150 APril 30th, 6:00AM ( GMT+12)= Beijing 2:00 AM