4月22日 2:am非美货币大举下跌;格老证词左右市场

	隔夜市场分析:  昨天早些时候, 格老的乐观的证词令市场大起波澜. 讲话强化了美国即将升息的预期, 美元得到提振, 非美货币在讲话后应声下跌.在昨晚第2轮的讲话中, 格老偏于中立的发言, 使得市场又小起波浪. 当格老提及具体加息时间未定后,非美一度反攻. 随后回落. 今日操作建议: 警惕非美货币回调风险, 建议寻高卖出. 欧元:    国际货币基金会(IMF)今天表示, 欧元区经济复苏力度不够, 消费回落, 失业增多, ECB应做好降息准备. 技术方面分看, 欧元仍处在下跌通到中,  阻力位位于1.1920然后是1.1980, 在有效突破1.1850后,  欧元支持位为1.1760. 预期波动区间: 1.2090-1.1850 日元: 昨日, 国际货币基金委员会曾表示, 日本经济将温和复苏, 但日元快速升值和结构性疲软仍是很大的负面风险. 昨天由于美元兑日元的交易,  虽有振荡, 但仍维持在上升区间波动. 支持位在108.30.而上方阻力在110.40附近. 预期波动区间: 110.40-108.30 英镑: 由于英国央行公布货币政策委员会(MPC) 9位会员中只有1位同意本月升息.而先前预期为6比3. 原因在于, 委员们担心增值的英镑将会抵消房屋市场上涨带来的通涨影响.消息过后, 英镑跌幅增至0.8%. 在技术分析上看, 英镑在有效突破1.7750后, 仍然有处于下跌通道的区间交易.下一个支持则在1.7580然后是1.7360(去年8月抵点到今年2月高位的50%回调). 阻力位于1.77590. 警惕回调风险, 建议寻高卖出. 预期交易区间: 1.8150-1.7790 澳元和纽币: 在昨天, 由于澳,纽没有新的经济数据. 格老讲话加强了美国的升息预期,作为商品货币, 将会打击澳元和纽币对投资者的吸引力. 跟随英镑和欧元的带领, 澳元和纽币今日都走出跌势. 中期仍有卖盘危险. 澳元若跌破0.7280的颈线后, 回迎来新的一轮下跌走势. 主力支持在0.7170附近.纽元若有效跌破0.6180(去年9月低点到今年2月高位的61.8%回调)的后则会继续下, 支持位位于0.6050附近. 预期交易区间: 澳元0.73700.7170;纽元 0.62800.6100 [ Last edited by 张大硕 on 2004-4-22 at 02:27 PM ]

	Early, FED chairman Greenspan’s optimism testimonies would give market a signal on reinforce expectations US interest rates were heading higher. All major currencies were dropping down immediately. On the second round, he sounds like quite neutral. Dollar was continued trading strength. Today’s Suggestion: Be aware of market retracement, and the suggestion is sell-high. Eur/Usd:  The international Monetary Fund (IMF) said the weak economic recovery; week consumption; and high unemployment would make ECB ready for rate cut. From technical view: euro still trade in downside trend. Resistance level is 1.1920 then 1.1980. After effectively break though 1.1850, the next support level is 1.1760. Trading range: 1.2090-1.1850 Usd/Jpy:  The international Monetary Fund (IMF) said Japan’s economy will continue its moderate recovery. But sharp rise in yen and structural weaknesses remain downside risks. Followed by strength dollar, Dollar yen was still keep in upside range trading. Major support is above 108.30. Resistance is about 110.40.   Trading range: 110.40-108.30 Gbp/Usd:  The MPC meeting was out 8-1 vote to keep rate unchanged; market were expected voted 6-3 for steady rates for no change in earlier this month. Members were worried by the strength pound would offset the inflationary impact of the strong house price growth. Sterling was down by 0.8% after the news released. From technical view: after sterling broken through 1.7750, Cable still in downside trend. The next support level is 1.7580, and then 1.7360, which is 50% FIBO form the low at Aug.2003 to the high at Feb. this year.  The resistance level is above 1.7790. Trading range: 1.7790-1.7580 Aud/Usd; Nzd/Usd: There was no major data from Australia and NZ yesterday.  Fed chairman Greenspan’s optimism testimonies increased the opportunity of rate hiking. As commodity currencies, both Aussie and Kiwi would lose attractively. They have also been following the Euro and Sterling, as always, and as they start to suffer from US$ strength so do the Aussie and Kiwi. Both of then still have sell-off risk. Major support of Aussie would be 0.7170, if efficiently break though 0.7280 as ‘Neck’ by chart reading. Kiwi would be 0.6180, if break though, next support is 0.6050. Trading range: Aud/Usd 0.7370-0.7170; Nzd/Usd 0.6280-0.6100 [ Last edited by 张大硕 on 2004-4-22 at 02:06 AM ]

	按你的分析欧元走势会下跌到1.16了吗？那我就全完了

	Could you tell me where you get above message?

	Originally posted by amumu at 2004-4-22 08:28: Could you tell me where you get above message? 我都说了是原创嘛。。。。。由于英语水平有限，如果有些错的地方。。请原谅。。。。和 和