欧元/美元重要阻力和支撑位

tigerbite · 发表于 2003-4-9 14:31

1.0654 (+/-10)
1.0760 (+/-10)
1.0807 (+/-10)
1.0860 (+/-10)

为了校准短线的预测准确率, 特别加了正负10点.

sharkeater · 发表于 2003-4-9 15:15

Originally posted by tigerbite at 2003-4-9 07:31 PM:
1.0654 (+/-10)
1.0760 (+/-10)
1.0807 (+/-10)
1.0860 (+/-10)

为了校准短线的预测准确率, 特别加了正负10点.

What about to add 1.0700 (+/-10), as immediate support for today.

Sorry in delaying to repond your last post.  It spent me an hour and half to get into here again, it was really too busy the family!

You have an acute sence to the movement of Euro as your sign indicates.  Would you please to take a look four hour chart of Euro, it seems very bullish for today and tomorrow?

I am not sure if Euro is constructing a big triangle within the next several weeks before the war's impact on US economics is clear.  If so, Euro has a capability to be up as high as 1.0900 by this weekend or early of the next week, four hour chart movement seems to suggest it. What is your thinking about?

Besides,  S&P future is down about 4.5 points now, bond (10 years) is up 10 points to 112'05, you know what is suggested. Please use Chinese to post it to let guys here know.

Thanks

tigerbite · 发表于 2003-4-9 15:44

Originally posted by sharkeater at 2003-4-9 03:15 PM:
What about to add 1.0700 (+/-10), as immediate support for today.

Sorry in delaying to repond your last post. It spent me an hour and half to get into here again, it was really too busy the fam ...

食鲨兄(注意您这个名字可能让GREENPEACE臭骂哦

):

我同意1.0700附近有弱支撑, 同样在1.0720附近也有.

至于本周末欧元是否会到1.09上方,我持保守态度. 我感觉欧元在1.0860前面会遇到强烈的卖盘阻力, 可能导致一定的欧元调整. 而且,欧元现在还没有破位冲出下跌的趋势线,所以也有再度下跌的可能. 我倾向这个可能. 另外,如果欧元短线能到达1.09的话, 1.1的挑战几乎是必然的了. 那样的话, 中长线美元必然受到强大的压力, 很难短期再度上涨到1.05的价位了.

基本面上, 美国的经济虽然不好,但是如果能很快结束战争, 对美元也是利好的. 欧元体的经济其实也举步为艰, 而且战争后美国在瓜分利益的时候欧洲(除了英国)也不会有什么好处. 短期来看美国进一步控制中东的石油只能给欧洲带来负面影响. 所以我的观点是美元短线仍然强势. 中长其的观点有很大不同. 我不想在此赘述.

sharkeater · 发表于 2003-4-9 16:30

Originally posted by tigerbite at 2003-4-9 08:44 PM:
食鲨兄(注意您这个名字可能让GREENPEACE臭骂哦):

我同意1.0700附近有弱支撑, 同样在1.0720附近也有.

至于本周末欧元是否会到1.09上方,我持保守态度. 我感觉欧元在1.0860前面会遇到强烈的卖盘阻力, 可能导 ...

Great! Thanks a lot.

If account the current upside wave length as 61.8% of the last one (1.0499 to 1.0957), it would be about 1.0840/1.0860. I guess it may be difficult for Euro to pass 1.0830/40, which I suppose to be out for Euro long (bought at 1.0611).

I have not calculated the declining line position for the next couple of days (roughly estimated in my last post), today is at about 1.0925 (certainly could not be there today).