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SaxoBank 20日的分析,今天的还没有收到.

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发表于 2003-11-21 11:30 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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SaxoBank 20日的分析,今天的还没有收到.

Published: Nov. 20 2003, 06:51 GMT

USD/JPY may pullback to 108.70/60, rallies to 110.00 thereafter; EUR/USD may fall to 1.1800, allow for further declines

FX Snapshots:  Europe

EUR/USD  may tick back up to 1.1930/40, but the sell-off from the 1.1980 top may extend further later in the day, and have a go at 1.1800. Break of 1.1800 suggests improved odds of further decline to 1.1700 later in the week.  The second part of the scenario --   a final upmove to 1.2000 - 1.2020 -- does not seem to be forthcoming from here.  We might just get an idealized correction to the lower 1.1700s in the next few days. Nonetheless, a new EUR uptrend is upon us, and strategy should accomodate this change.  We will look for level to reinstate strategic long EUR/USD positions once the corrective phase of the 1.1383 rally goes low enough.

FX Snapshots:  New York

EUR/USD  did pullback to 1.1920 - 1.1900 in European trading,  and so let  see if the currency does the second part of the scenario --   a final upmove to 1.2000 - 1.2020.  We still believe that firm resistance at those level should hold the currency back however, and we might see a bigger correction to the 1.1740 - 1.1700 area late in the week.  We jumped the gun early on a more solid correction, but if resistance start appearing at 1.2000 area, then we might just get an idealized correction to the lower 1.1700s in the next few days. Nonetheless, a new EUR uptrend is upon us, and strategy should accomodate this change.  We will look for level to reinstate strategic long EUR/USD positions once the corrective phase of the 1.1383 rally has gone low enough.

Euro/US Dollar     
EURUSD  (1.1921 @ 06:38 GMT)

EUR/USD  may tick back up to 1.1930/40, but the sell-off from the 1.1980 top may extend further later in the day, and have a go at 1.1800. Break of 1.1800 suggests improved odds of further decline to 1.1700 later in the week.  The second part of the scenario --   a final upmove to 1.2000 - 1.2020 -- does not seem to be forthcoming from here.  We might just get an idealized correction to the lower 1.1700s in the next few days. Nonetheless, a new EUR uptrend is upon us, and strategy should accomodate this change.  We will look for level to reinstate strategic long EUR/USD positions once the corrective phase of the 1.1383 rally has gone low enough.

Sell at 1.1940. Initial stoploss: 1.1990. Trading objective: 1.1800.

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