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USD: Treading Water Ahead of Jackson Hole

Pull up your daily charts & its clear that despite the "intraday Vol" in FX everything is stuck in a tight range - waiting for Big Ben

The Q is, will Jackson Hole 2011 be a redux of JH 2010 where Fed laid groundwork for QE2 which began 2 months later?

Like 2010, economy is weak but UNLIKE 2010, we are not talking about deflation risk right now

Fed has 5 choices

1) Do nothing

2) Extend 2013 Pledge to Securities Portfolio

3) Operation Twist

4) Cut Rates on Reserves

5) QE3

the market has become far too reliant on the fed - it's dangerous

an operation twist that will do nothing....

Maybe 1 for now - & will have to do 2,4 &5 later in the year when US slows down much more or EU explodes - whichever earlier

and this is Def possible. We have seen too many episodes in recent history of the market pushing companies and countries into the abyss

今天黄金如果给机会，降到1800之下，就收手。