英国通胀报告摘要翻译

	Overview： CPI inflation remained well above the 2% target but the recent weakness in underlying output growth persisted. The recovery in the world economy was maintained and is expected to support growth in the United Kingdom, as should the considerable stimulus from monetary policy and the current level of sterling. But the continuing squeeze on households’ real incomes is likely to weigh on demand, especially over the next year or so. Further ahead, the chances of four-quarter GDP growth being either above or below its historical average rate are judged to be roughly balanced.CPI inflation is likely to rise further this year and is more likely than not to remain above the target throughout 2012. The near-term profile is markedly higher than in February, largely reflecting renewed increases in energy prices. Inflation is likely to fall through 2012 into 2013 as the impact of external price pressures and the increase in VAT dissipates and some downward pressure from a margin of spare capacity persists. But the timing and extent of that decline in inflation are both highly uncertain. Under the assumptions that Bank Rate moves in line with market interest rates and the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £200 billion, the chances of inflation being above or below the target in the medium term are judged to be about the same. 内容摘要： CPI保持在2%的通胀目标之上的较高水平，但是最近潜在产出增长持续低迷。（英格兰银行）维持对世界经济复苏的判断，并认为这有利于拉动英国经济增长，同时（英国）货币政策释放的大量流动性以及过去英镑的贬值也都有助于（英国）经济复苏。但是家庭部门真实收入持续停滞增长很可能会一直抑制需求，特别是明年大体如此。而且可以进一步据此判断，四季度GDP增长的概率在历史平均水平上下。CPI（通胀率）今年内可能进一步走高，但很可能2012年就不会保持在2%的通胀目标之上。近期CPI数据明显高于2月，这主要由于近期能源品价格重新上涨。由于外部价格压力以及潜在空置产能持续增长压力降低和增值税增涨效果减退，通胀率很可能从2012年到2013年就回落。但是CPI回落的具体时间和幅度难以确定。假设英格兰银行利率与市场利率水平保持一致，且资产购买保持在200亿英镑左右的规模，据此可判断中期CPI偏离通胀目标（2%)的概率应保持不变。 5.Prospects for inflation CPI inflation is likely to rise further this year, following additional increases in energy and import prices. It is then expected to fall back during 2012, as the effects of high energy and import price inflation and the recent rise in VAT diminish, and downward pressure from spare capacity persists.But the precise timing and extent of that fall are uncertain. Underlying growth has moderated in recent quarters, but it is unclear whether that slowdown is temporary or will be prolonged. The continued global recovery, the considerable stimulus from monetary policy and the past depreciation of sterling should all help to support growth.But the continuing squeeze on households’ real incomes is likely to weigh on demand, especially over the next year or so. Under the assumptions that Bank Rate moves in line with market interest rates and the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves remains at £200 billion, the chances of inflation being above or below the target in the medium term are judged to be about the same. 5.通胀前景： 伴随能源品和进口品价格上涨，今年CPI可能进一步上涨。当高油价和进口价格及增值税增长的影响消退后，而空置产能持续的压力减轻，预期2012年CPI将回落。但是CPI回落的具体时间和幅度难以确定。近几个季度CPI的潜在上涨已经得到了缓和，但是目前还不清楚这种放缓是暂时性的还是长期性。全球经济复苏正在持续，（英国）货币政策释放的大量流动性以及过去英镑的贬值都有助于（英国）经济复苏。但是家庭部门真实收入持续停滞增长很可能会一直抑制需求，特别是明年大体如此。假设英格兰银行利率与市场利率水平保持一致，且资产购买保持在200亿英镑左右的规模，据此可判断中期CPI偏离通胀目标（2%)的概率应保持不变。

	英镑多头自59735份大幅减少至41368份，空头自28928份减少至23250份，导致英镑净多头自30807份大幅减少至18118份，减幅高达41%；未平仓合约减少15886份至108117份。数据显示近期英镑多头信心大幅降低，英镑/美元短期可能继续承压。