Dow 关于从一个牛市到熊市六个阶段的论述

	The second  Bear phase is marked by a sudden mood change, from optimism and hope  to shock and fear.  One day, the public wakes up and sees, much to its surprise, that "the emperor has no clothes."  Actual fundamental business conditions are not panning out to be as positive as previously hoped.   In fact, there may be a little problem.  The smart money is long gone, and there is no one  left to buy when the public wants out.  Stock prices drop steeply in a vacuum.  Fear quickly replaces greed.  Repeated waves of panic may sweep the market.  Transactional volume swells as the unsophisticated investor screams, "Get me out at any price!"  Sharp professional traders are willing to bid way down in price for stocks when prices drop too fast.  The best that can be expected, however, is a dead-cat bounce that recovers only a fraction of the steep loss.   The third Bear phase is marked by discouraged selling and, finally, total disgust to ward stocks.  Fundamentals clearly have deteriorated and the outlook is bleak.  Downward price movement continues but the negative rate of change eventually begins to slow as potential sellers liquidate holdings at distress prices.  Even the best stocks, which initially resist the downtrend, succumb to the persistence of the Bear.   Transactional volume, which was high in the panic phase, starts to diminish on price declines as liquidation runs its course.  Eventually, after everyone who is capable of selling has sold already, the Bear Market is exhausted.  The discouraged public lament is, "never again."  After stocks are totall sold out, the stage is then set fo the cycle to begin again.  When everyone who ever is going to sell has already sold, there is only one direction for prices to go ---- up.   These phases are no secret.  They have been written about by Dow and its successors for more than a century.  These phases repeat endlessly, over and over again.  Still, teh public never learns.  It is all too easy, it is merely human nature, to get caught up in the mass mood of the moment, lose all perspective and run with the emotions of the crowd.  If you do not learn how to recognize the technical indications, and if you are not disciplined, the easiest thing in the world to do is to allow your self to be pulled along by the mass mood, the "group think."  But that is the way to be wrong at the critical turning points, t obuy at tops and sell at bottoms, and to consistently underperform the market.  To make money and out perform the market, we need to do the opposite.  The Dow Theory tells us how. End

	Originally posted by sharkeater at 2003-8-5 00:33: The second  Bear phase is marked by a sudden mood change, from optimism and hope  to shock and fear.  One day, the public wakes up and sees, much to its surprise, that "the emperor has no clot ... 刚完成老兄留的“作业”，正想去睡，您的“附加题”又上来了-----命苦哇！

	关键是能够识别它们

	Originally posted by 北方一狼 at 2003-8-5 05:40 AM: 刚完成老兄留的“作业”，正想去睡，您的“附加题”又上来了-----命苦哇！ 你翻得真好，忍不住在加了点。 在向你表示诚挚感谢的同时，说一声抱歉。 谢谢你和 Zargrant !

	tigerbite 班主说得对，在熟悉了这六个阶段的特征后 ，要学会辨别他们。 各位可以将欧元的上涨和下跌作一回顾，看看能不能区分出来。 不要忘记将当时 的评论家和分析师们的作品， 一起加以对照。

	看不懂呀。。。版主翻译一下吧。

	熊市的第二个阶段以市场情绪的突然变化为标志，市场从乐观和憧憬，转而震惊和恐惧。有一天，公众苏醒了，而且他们很吃惊地发现：“皇帝原来没有穿衣服！” 而事实上的经济基本面并没有展现出和早些时候预计的那样乐观，实际上可能存在一定的问题。“聪明资金”早已离场，而且没有人留下来购买公众手中的筹码。股票价格像在真空器里一样急速下滑。恐惧很快代替了贪婪，恐慌盘反复地席卷整个市场。随着单纯的投资者的尖叫：“让我离场，我不在乎价格！”成交量开始膨胀。当价格下滑太快时，机灵的职业交易员们有意识地去博下降过程中的反弹。然而，我们的最大希望就是出现一次回光返照——整个急速下跌过程中的一个小插曲。 当公众气馁的卖出他们手中的筹码时，当市场最终被彻底的厌恶情绪笼罩时，意味着熊市的第三阶段开始了。经济基本面显著恶化，而且前景黯淡。股票价格持续下滑，但由于潜在的卖家清算他们在“地价”的持仓，这种下跌的趋势最终减慢了。即使前期比较抗跌的优质股票，最终也在持续的熊市中屈服了。在恐慌阶段中很大的成交量，开始在价格的下跌过程中萎缩，此时是一个清算过程。最终，当每个人把能卖的都卖了，熊市也终于耗尽了能量。气馁的公众叹息着：“下次再不这样了！” 当所有的股票都被卖了，新一轮循环的序幕就拉开了。当所有想卖的人都卖了，现在价格就只有一个方向可以走了——上升。 这些过程不是秘密。Dow和他的后继者们已经写出它们有一个多世纪了。这些过程永无止境地重复，一次又一次。但是公众仍然不吸取教训。这很简单，仅仅是出于人类的天性——跟随当时的主流情绪，丢失了所有的个人判断。如果你没有学会识别技术指标，如果你没有经过训练，这个世界上最简单的事情就是让你自己从主流情绪，群体思维中解脱出来。因为这是一个南辕北辙的思路——在高点买入，在低点卖出，而且一直往市场给你准备的圈套中钻。为了赚钱，为了跳出市场的圈套，我们需要反向操作。Dow的理论告诉了我们应该怎样做。 [ Last edited by zargrant on 2003-8-5 at 09:07 AM ]

	Originally posted by sharkeater at 2003-8-5 03:35: 你翻得真好，忍不住在加了点。 在向你表示诚挚感谢的同时，说一声抱歉。 谢谢你和 Zargrant ! 鲨兄太客气了，是您给提供了这么多开拓视野的机会，更应向您表示诚挚的谢意和敬意。----因为有了您，欧元版块才这样人气鼎盛。 我只是为您和汇友们搭了个便桥而已，微不足道，很乐于效劳。 只是白天工作忙些，只能拿到晚上译了，请大家海涵。 如不嫌误事，本人很乐于以后多为大家做此类份内工作。

	谢谢zargrant,北方一狼，翻译的的确好。

	谢谢大家，这论坛之所以兴旺， 是大家的共同努力，tigerbite班主为此付出了很多。 其他斑竹和汇友也非常捧场。 让我们一起来建设好我们这个家。