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ZT 大崩的可能性

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展露锋芒

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发表于 2008-10-30 08:25 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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如果这是真的, 欧洲可真的要大崩。 顺便解气的是, 可恶的巴西淡水河谷那么欺负中国,不停的提价, 该崩。

Europe on the brink of currency crisis meltdown
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:01am GMT 27/10/2008

The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.

Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. Iceland’s demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (£47bn). The Germans have lost $22bn. Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk.

It threatens to become “the second epicentre of the global financial crisis”, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America. Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund. Exposure is 50pc of GDP for Switzerland, 25pc for Sweden, 24pc for the UK, and 23pc for Spain.

The US figure is just 4pc. America is the staid old lady in this drama. Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall.

Broadly speaking, the US and Japan sat out the emerging market credit boom. The lending spree has been a European play – often using dollar balance sheets, adding another ugly twist as global “deleveraging” causes the dollar to rocket. Nowhere has this been more extreme than in the ex-Soviet bloc. The region has borrowed $1.6 trillion in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs. A few dare-devil homeowners in Hungary and Latvia took out mortgages in Japanese yen.

They have just suffered a 40pc rise in their debt since July. Nobody warned them what happens when the Japanese carry trade goes into brutal reverse, as it does when the cycle turns. The IMF’s experts drafted a report two years ago – Asia 1996 and Eastern Europe 2006 – Déjà vu all over again? – warning that the region exhibited the most dangerous excesses in the world. Inexplicably, the text was never published, though underground copies circulated.

Little was done to cool credit growth, or to halt the fatal reliance on foreign capital. Last week, the silent authors had their moment of vindication as Eastern Europe went haywire. Hungary stunned the markets by raising rates 3pc to 11.5pc in a last-ditch attempt to defend the forint’s currency peg in the ERM. It is just blood in the water for hedge funds sharks, eyeing a long line of currency kills.

“The economy is not strong enough to take it, so you know it is unsustainable,” said Simon Derrick, currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon. Romania raised its overnight lending to 900pc to stem capital flight, recalling the near-crazed gestures by Scandinavia’s central banks in the final days of the 1992 ERM crisis – political moves that turned the Nordic banking crisis into a disaster.

Russia too is in the eye of the storm, despite its energy wealth – or because of it. The cost of insuring Russian sovereign debt through credit default swaps (CDS) surged to 1,200 basis points last week, higher than Iceland’s debt before Götterdammerung struck Reykjavik. The markets no longer believe that the spending structure of the Russian state is viable as oil threatens to plunge below $60 a barrel.

The foreign debt of the oligarchs ($530bn) has surpassed the country’s foreign reserves. Some $47bn has to be repaid over the next two months. Traders are paying close attention as contagion moves from the periphery of the eurozone into the core. They are tracking the yield spreads between Italian and German 10-year bonds, the stress barometer of monetary union.

The spreads reached a post-EMU high of 93 last week. Nobody knows where the snapping point is, but anything above 100 would be viewed as a red alarm. The market took careful note on Friday that Portugal’s biggest banks, Millenium, BPI, and Banco Espirito Santo are preparing to take up the state’s emergency credit guarantees. Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says there is an imminent danger that East Europe’s currency pegs will be smashed unless the EU authorities wake up to the full gravity of the threat, and that in turn will trigger a dangerous crisis for EMU itself.

“The system is paralysed, and it is starting to look like Black Wednesday in 1992. I’m afraid this is going to have a very deflationary effect on the economy of Western Europe. It is almost guaranteed that euroland money supply is about to implode,” he said.

A grain of comfort for British readers: UK banks have almost no exposure to the ex-Communist bloc, except in Poland – one of the less vulnerable states. The threat to Britain lies in emerging Asia, where banks have lent $329bn, almost as much as the Americans and Japanese combined.

Whether you realise it or not, your pension fund is sunk in Vietnamese bonds and loans to Indian steel magnates. Didn’t they tell you?

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-10-30 09:32 | 显示全部楼层
有好心人麻烦给翻一下, 最近实在太忙,不好意思。

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发表于 2008-10-30 14:07 | 显示全部楼层
Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992. 货币盯住正在测试,以毁灭的边缘,欧洲货币联盟在外伤性动荡,回顾了崩溃的汇率机制于1992年。

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. “这是最大的货币危机世界上前所未有说 , ” 梅勒,战略家纽约银行梅隆。

Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. 专家担心,这种混乱可能很快引发连锁反应,欧元区内的本身。 The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits. 风险是增加资本外逃由奥地利-国家,因为它发生,这抵消了全球银行倒闭时, 1 931年5月信用A nstalt下降-从一个字符串Cl ubMe d的国家,依靠外国资金来支付庞大的经常帐赤字。

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect. 最新的数据来自国际清算银行表明,西欧银行持有的几乎所有暴露于新兴市场的泡沫,现在与壮观的破坏作用。

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles. 他们占四分之三的总四万七点零亿美元英镑2960000000000 )跨境银行贷款到东欧,拉丁美洲和亚洲新兴市场扩展在全球信贷繁荣-一个数额大大超过了规模,美国分总理和Alt一个失败。

Europe has already had its first foretaste of what this may mean. 欧洲已经有第一次预示着什么这可能意味着。 Iceland’s demise has left them nursing likely losses of $74bn (£47bn). 冰岛的灭亡已经离开他们可能损失护理美元74bn ( £ 47bn ) 。 The Germans have lost $22bn. 德国失去了220亿美元。

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, says the emerging market crash is a vastly underestimated risk. 任永力,货币首席摩根士丹利表示,新兴市场的崩溃是一个大大低估了风险。 It threatens to become “the second epicentre of the global financial crisis”, this time unfolding in Europe rather than America. 它有可能成为“第二个中心的全球金融危机” ,这一次出现在欧洲而不是美国。

Austria’s bank exposure to emerging markets is equal to 85pc of GDP – with a heavy concentration in Hungary, Ukraine, and Serbia – all now queuing up (with Belarus) for rescue packages from the International Monetary Fund. 奥地利的银行暴露于新兴市场,等于国内生产总值的85pc -与高度集中在匈牙利,乌克兰和塞尔维亚-现在都排队(白俄罗斯)的救援一揽子计划从国际货币基金。
The US figure is just 4pc. 美国的数字仅仅是4pc 。 America is the staid old lady in this drama. 美国是稳重老太太在这个戏剧。

Amazingly, Spanish banks alone have lent $316bn to Latin America, almost twice the lending by all US banks combined ($172bn) to what was once the US backyard. 令人惊讶的是,西班牙银行借给仅$ 316bn到拉丁美洲,几乎两倍贷款的所有美国银行合并( $ 172bn ) ,以曾经是美国的后院。 Hence the growing doubts about the health of Spain’s financial system – already under stress from its own property crash – as Argentina spirals towards another default, and Brazil’s currency, bonds and stocks all go into freefall. 因此,越来越怀疑的健康,西班牙的金融体系-在压力下已经从自己的财产崩溃-阿根廷对另一螺旋默认情况下,和巴西的货币,债券和股票都进入自由落体。

Broadly speaking, the US and Japan sat out the emerging market credit boom. 从广义上说,美国和日本的坐在了新兴市场信贷繁荣。 The lending spree has been a European play – often using dollar balance sheets, adding another ugly twist as global “deleveraging” causes the dollar to rocket. 贷款热潮已在欧洲发挥-经常使用美元的资产负债表,增加了一个丑陋的扭曲作为全球性的“ d eleveraging”的原因,美元的火箭。 Nowhere has this been more extreme than in the ex-Soviet bloc. 任何地方都没有象这更极端的是比前苏联集团。

The region has borrowed $1.6 trillion in dollars, euros, and Swiss francs. 该地区借来的1.6万亿美元的美元,欧元,瑞士法郎。 A few dare-devil homeowners in Hungary and Latvia took out mortgages in Japanese yen. 有几个敢说,魔鬼业主匈牙利和拉脱维亚取出抵押日元。 They have just suffered a 40pc rise in their debt since July. 他们刚刚遭受了40pc增加其债务自7月。 Nobody warned them what happens when the Japanese carry trade goes into brutal reverse, as it does when the cycle turns. 没有人警告他们会发生什么变化,日本套利交易进入残酷的扭转,因为它并不时轮流循环。
仁者无敌
忍着无敌

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发表于 2008-10-30 14:07 | 显示全部楼层
google 翻译的 凑副看吧!
仁者无敌
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发表于 2008-10-30 14:18 | 显示全部楼层
支持楼主观点
建议赚钱的网友组团去欧洲救灾!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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发表于 2008-10-30 18:19 | 显示全部楼层

暂译至此,晚些时候再译

欧洲在货币体系崩溃的边缘

这次金融危机极快的散布已经引起了更危险的第二次西欧银行危机,致使整个欧洲大陆完全进入经济衰退期,其危险程度已经超过了前苏联集团的威胁。
欧洲货币联盟在遭受剧创后致使欧洲固定货币体系崩溃使我们回想起了1992年欧洲外汇机制的崩溃。
纽约梅隆银行战略家内尔梅勒说:“这是世界上到目前为止最大的金融危机”。
专家担心这种崩溃不久可能引起欧元区内的连锁反映。就像欧洲第一次经济危机时的1931年5月,资本外逃的巨浪席卷奥地利,信用体系的崩溃引发全球性的银行倒闭,一些地中海沿岸国家只能依靠外国资金的注入来抵销巨大的货币赤字。
国际结算银行的最新数据表明,西欧的银行几乎持有所有已披露的市场泡沫资产,现在已引爆出巨大影响。

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发表于 2008-10-30 23:21 | 显示全部楼层
这些西欧银行的四分之三的资产约4.7万亿美元或2.96万亿英镑,在全球信用繁荣时期由这些西欧跨国银行贷款给东欧,拉丁美洲及新兴亚洲国家,已经大大超越美国次级贷款和A级货款崩溃危机中损失的总额。
欧洲已经有一些关于这次金融危机引发巨大影响的首次预测。冰岛的死亡使西欧很可能损失740亿美元或470亿百万英镑。德国银行损失了220亿美元。摩根斯坦利货币流通主席史蒂夫简表示新兴市场的崩溃风险被大大低估了。

这次西欧银行危机可能将成为第二次全球金融危机的震中,这次是在欧洲展开而不是像上次全球金融危机一样从美国开始蔓延。奥地利银行披露的向新兴市场的贷款总额相当于整个国民经济总产值的85%,和一些过度集中贷款的国家如匈牙利,乌克兰和塞尔维亚,现在都和白俄罗斯一起排队等候国际货币基金组织的一揽子救援计划。奥地利银行还披露了向新兴市场贷款额占50%国民经济总产值的瑞士,占25%国民经济总产值的瑞典,占24%国民经济总产值的英国和占23%国民经济总产值的西班牙。

美国对新兴市场的贷款额只占4%国民经济总产值。美国在这场金融闹剧中的表演有点像个持重的老太太。令人惊讶的是,西班牙单独贷款3760亿美元给曾是美国后院的拉丁美洲,几乎是所有美国银行货款额(1720亿美元)的两倍多。因此越来越多的质疑关于西班牙金融系统是否在已经财产崩溃的重压之下还能保持健康运转。阿根廷的经济也在盘旋而下,巴西的货币,债券和股票都进入崩塌式下跌。

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发表于 2008-10-30 23:23 | 显示全部楼层

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发表于 2008-10-30 23:25 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢trustar

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发表于 2008-10-30 23:28 | 显示全部楼层
人才很多呀........改天我的论文找你们帮我译成E文吧......呵呵

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