 | |  | | 原帖由 sharkeater 于 2008-10-24 23:16 发表
It's very complicated question.
But could contribute most to excessively aggressive approch of the US world strategy since 9.11 of 2001.
Currently, Change of currencey ratio is dominant by intence of market risk.
Excessively aggressive approch of the US world strategy here means, in short , excessive expanssion of power and interest.
Besides of every thing, it needs money to do so.
For the reason, dollar depreciation was necessary.
You have seen the consequence of dollar depreciation from every field.
Skyrocketing price of commercial goods, like oil, metals and grains(corn, wheal, rice, and bean, etc), almost everything of raw materials, as well as precial metals, like gold and platinum, is one of examples.
So was the speculative activities, borrow (equal to sell, here) JPY and US Dollar, currencies with lower interests (lower or least cost), to buy everything.
Now, under pressure of turmoil finacial situations (risk) , it is time to pay back.
By the end of process selling commercial goods, gold, stocks, etc, how much of gain (comparing to prices in 2001) in %, will leave,
roughly, gain in % of other currencies (except of JPY and US Dollar) will be likely left.
Therefore, It should not be supprise If Euro/Dollar back to below 1.0.
Currently, 1.2450 -- 1.2500 region could be a possible bottom.
However, if 1.2450 --- 1.2500 broken, 1.1640, the low of 2005, is likely to be tested soon.
（翻译一下供大家参考，翻译得不对请指正）
（目前的情况）是个复杂的问题，但可能主要来源于2001年911以来美国全球战略的过分进取的方式。
这里，美国全球战略过分进取的方式，在短期内意味着过度扩张的权力及野心，除了其他因素外，这还需要金钱
。
因此，美元贬值是必然的。你可以在各个领域看到美元贬值的结果，商品价格的猛涨就是例子，包括原油、金属
、农产品等等。
由此产生的投机行为是：借入（等同于卖出）日元、美元这些低息货币，然后买任何东西。
现在，在金融风暴的情况下，由于风险增加，上述投机行为到了还债的时候了。（引用电影里的话：出来行（混
），始终都要还的。）
因此，欧/美回到1.0以下也没有什么好惊讶的。
目前，1.2450-1.2500区域可能成为底部，如果跌破了1.2450-1.2500，将很快测试2005年低位1.1640。
[ 本帖最后由 lss 于 2008-10-25 16:59 编辑 ] |  |  |  |  |
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楼主
发表于 2008-10-24 23:32
