 | |  | | EUR/USD: Deja Vous All Over Again, New High, Same Slide
New York, July 24.
As Yogi Berra was famously quoted, it's deja vous all over again; another new high, this time 1.3853, just enough to pop the exotic triggers at 1.3850, and then a dispirited slide back into mid- range levels. Spot retreated to a low of 1.3820, where the 24-hr M/A (1.3817) repelled the downside thrust and the pair has "dead cat" bounced back up to 1.3823. Middle East names featured on the topside foray, reputedly buying at the 1.3852 and 53 levels as the highs were registered, with talk of oil revenue conversions going through.
In an almost carbon copy of yesterday the technicals look dour for the Euro. The slow stochastic has crossed down on the hourly, and RSI is starting to peek below a support line that would confirm the bearish view. RSI is neutral 51 and can go either way. There is a support line at 1.3810 that could be interesting if tested.
On the daily study RSI has broken support, is dipping yet is still elevated at 78.0; the slow stochastic has crossed negatively, spot is threatening the 5- day M/A at 1.3813, and the 10-day M/A at 1.3794 is close enough that a downside thrust could easily break both and force some black box sell on close liquidations.
On the weekly study RSI is rolling over at an elevated 77.0, as mentioned yesterday this is only the fourth time in two years that RSI has managed to remain elevated above 75.0 for three weeks or more. On the weekly the slow stochastic is still locked in an uptrend.
EUR/JPY continues to pressure the single currency lower, with spot down to 166.70 from around 167.30 at the open. Similarly EUR/GBP has dropped about 10 pips to 0.6702; Only EUR/CHF is throwing a bid into EUR/USD, rising 15 pips to 1.6660. Once again traders are apprehensive because of topside failure, but reluctant to throw themselves in front of the Euro bus.  |  |  |  |  |
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发表于 2007-7-20 14:33
楼主
近来，没啥波动，所以少有更新。。。欧元自6月中旬以来近单边走势。。。操作甚难。。。