you are right! The price, to me, actually walking randomly... What we can do is follow the main stream. And the main stream can be seen on a longer period of charts, such as 3hrs,daily...
last time, i am too eager to predict the price movement with lead to big lost!
recentlly, i am getting better by not thinking the price. (the JPY order just placed is a bit risky because somehow i was too eager to get into the market again! )