IMF正在发表对欧洲经济看法（标题新闻）

就更长期而言，欧元在1.20-1.30美元的水平基本是合理的

目前维持利率不变是适当的

欧元区经济的疲软是暂时的

不赞成欧盟对中国的贸易限制

A euro exchange rate of between $1.20 and $1.30 is about the right magnitude for long-term equilibrium, Michael Deppler, director of the International Monetary Fund's European Department, said in a conference call Tuesday.

"Basically, we would expect some fluctuations in rates around that level, and for that not to create difficulties," Deppler said.

"The euro needs to adjust to an average rate of around that magnitude," he said.

The euro has and will continue to benefit from structural reforms being undertaken in euro-zone countries, Deppler said.

原帖由 vendorsj 于 2005-6-7 16:42 发表
就更长期而言，欧元在1.20-1.30美元的水平基本是合理的

    
欧元系有救了!

原帖由 mai 于 2005-6-7 17:04 发表



    
欧元系有救了!

原帖由 vendorsj 于 2005-6-7 16:42 发表
就更长期而言，欧元在1.20-1.30美元的水平基本是合理的

好像去年就说过了。老调重弹？

"Reforms have paid off in past, and there is no reason not to expect them to continue to pay off in the future," Deppler said.

He noted that second-round inflationary effects in response to oil prices are absent thus far in the euro zone, after years of a stabilization and reform strategy, and that in the past these effects would have signaled a need for an interest rate rise.

Further, euro-zone economic weakness is temporary, he said. It isn't clear whether the reason for the weakness is high oil prices, exchange rates, a pause in global industrial production, or for different reasons, but the IMF still projects sustained growth for the world economy, he said.

"We don't see why the economic hiatus in Europe shouldn't be temporary," Deppler said, noting fiscal consolidation, labor market reforms, strengthened productivity and competitiveness.

Deppler added that the timing of stronger economic recovery isn't clear, "but in our view, it's on the horizon."

Deppler said it was "appropriate" to keep interest rates on hold for now, and that a decline in rates would only be warranted if economic weakness persists.

Deppler dismissed the idea voiced by some minority ministers in Italy suggesting a return to the lira.

"People really aren't thinking very straight," he said, and posed the question whether it is viable for a country to give up a currency when all of that country's assets and liabilities are denominated in that currency.

On concerns among some German lawmakers that Germany is paying a higher price for the euro than other countries, via higher real interest rates given Germany's low inflation, Deppler pointed to the benefits of structural reforms in Germany.

"In Germany, I would think the next decade will be better than the last decade," Deppler said.

Deppler also said the IMF is "definitely not in favor of imposing safeguards," on euro-zone industries in the form of trade barriers.

Italy has repeatedly called for restrictions on China's textile exports. Italy's textile and leather industries, mostly family-run companies, have seen orders dwindle dramatically with the emergence of cheaper alternatives from China. Deppler conceded there are clearly issues to be discussed between China and Europe, but this shouldn't result in trade barriers.

"Imposing trade restrictions is not the way to go," he said.