KeymanFX-启明外汇：专业机构每日技术观点12-18

KeymanFX-启明外汇：首席分析师观点

The EUR/USD continued its weak downtrend, which we believe is a consolidation of the more major uptrend, on Friday and our cycles say that it will probably continue into Wednesday before the downward pressure reverses. We have not been expecting this decline to be very powerful but the move on Friday was a bit disconcerting to our picture. First, we had expected the 1.3100 area to hold and we expected to see some euro strength toward the end of the day. Basically that did not happen as the euro looked weak all day.

A bit further afield, but more worrisome is the action in the gold market and the silver market as they both suffered powerful down days. These markets are often quite tightly related to the EUR/USD market so their weakness bodes ill for our longer-term strong euro outlook. This is especially true with silver, which is sometimes a leader because it can be so volatile. Both gold and silver argue for a cyclical low on Wednesday just like the EUR/USD but if it is much lower than current levels, it will imply strongly that the EUR/USD will not see a new high in mid-January.

Before we get too excited, however, we should note that oil closed up today - something that usually correlates with a weak dollar - maybe it is just to near Christmas and there is no liquidity.

KeymanFX-启明外汇：今日关注焦点货币

Once again we look to EUR/CHF for clues about the movements in the European currencies. The cycles argue this cross will end its uptrend on Tuesday and our target for this upmove is 1.6025 and it might not prove that strong. Following this peak the cross should decline for a minimum of a week and probably several weeks. Since the Swiss franc tends to lead the euro, we are expecting the European currencies to trade in the opposite direction. This means they should form a medium term low by the middle of the week and then rally for several weeks. Our strategy is to use any weakness seen during the next few days to add to long European currency positions.

The shorter cycles call for USD/CHF to see weakness on Monday, but this should be mild and it should hold above the support at 1.2120 and this level is unlikely to be tested. It should then turn up and make a final rally into late trading on Tuesday or Wednesday and we expect the 1.2300 area to hold. Since our medium term system is short Swiss franc we recommend buying pounds instead. USD/CHF should then turn down and close below 1.2120 and this will confirm it is headed lower into the middle of January and our initial target is 1.1815. The dollar can fall to as low as 1.1600 and the longer-term cycles are negative into the end of the first quarter. A close above the 1.2300 to 1.2320 area will raise concern that our negative outlook is wrong, but this remains very unlikely.

KeymanFX-启明外汇：每日技术观点随机节选

USD/CHF
Short Term Direction: Down on Monday, then up to Wednesday
Medium Term Direction: Topping by the middle of the week
Target: 1.2300

USD/CHF reached our target of 1.2205 and has reached the minimum timeframe for medium term peak

Monday should be a down day and if it closes below 1.2120 then the upmove is over

It is more likely the dollar avoids much weakness on Monday and then it makes a further upmove

It should then make a final rally into late trading or Tuesday

A break of 1.2250 means it will trade to the 1.2300 to 1.2320 area before peaking

Our medium term system went long on Friday, but we only like this trade for a few days

The dollar should eventually close below 1.2120 and this will signal it has begun a downtrend into the middle of January


Strategy: Only own dollars for a few days and with a stop below 1.2020

Name　　NY Close　　Support 1　　Support 2　　Resistance 1　　Resistance 2      
USD/CHF　1.2219　　　1.2185　　　　1.2120　　　　1.2250　　　　1.2300

kan  bu dong d

看不明白啊,英文!!

原帖由 lj8801 于 2006-12-18 12:40 发表
看不明白啊,英文!!

实在看不明白就算了，我已经尽了最大的努力想要帮助大家，但只靠我一个人是不可能帮到所有人的。

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