KeymanFX-启明外汇：专业机构每日技术观点12-14

KeymanFX-启明外汇：首席分析师观点

My work with cycles during the past 25 years has allowed me to identify significant turning points in the market. This doesn't always work, but these tend to be times where there is an increased likelihood of a reversal. This is one of those times in USD/JPY. The medium term cycles are telling us that the dollar will peak here, and the second most likely time for a top is late next week ahead of the Emperor's Birthday and Christmas holidays. The cycles argue the yen crosses are forming a peak as well, but this will probably be only a minor one. They will decline for a few days and possibly longer. The yen and euro are strongly correlated, and yet the cycles call for them to trade in opposite directions for a bit. The euro should decline during the next two days, while USD/JPY should also fall into the end of the week. There is a good chance dollar will make its top here and decline during the next few days, resuming its major downtrend.

The shorter cycles argue that Thursday will be a down day for dollar/yen and the support at 117.25 should break. This will confirm that it will fall to 116.40 by Friday, and if it proves that weak the outlook will turn very negative. It has then begun its move lower into the middle of January, and our target for this downmove remains the 114.00 area. If the dollar closes above even the close resistance at 117.65 then my view is wrong. This means the dollar will continue higher into late next week, reaching 118.40 before peaking. We would now bet on the yen - let's see if it works.

KeymanFX-启明外汇：今日关注焦点货币

USD/CHF closed at its highest level in two weeks as the upmove has resumed. Although this strength of the dollar was attributed to the strong US retail sales, it fit in perfectly with our reading of the cycles, which were calling for a low late Wednesday. The cycles now tell us that the dollar will trade higher into the end of the week, or at the latest into the end of next week. Even in hindsight it might not be too easy to tell which of the two peaks is more significant as trading volumes should dry up as next week progresses with most of the major countries with the exception of China's celebration of their holidays. We are expecting the dollar to resume its major downtrend during the final week of the year and it could begin sooner.

The shorter cycles call for dollar/Swiss to trade higher into Friday or Monday and this is the minimum timeframe for the upmove to end. It should break above 1.2100 and rally to 1.2160 before peaking, but this has a good chance of holding and should be a good place to add to short positions. Only a close above this level means that it will continue higher into late next week and reach 1.2300 before peaking, but this is less likely.

The support at 1.2020 should hold on Thursday and only a close below 1.1970 will immediately turn the outlook negative. It is then headed lower into the middle of January, but any aggressive weakness should be postponed for a minimum of a few days.

KeymanFX-启明外汇：每日技术观点随机节选

EUR/JPY
Short Term Direction: Down into Friday or Monday
Medium Term Direction: Down into Monday, possibly a week longer
Target: 155.50

EUR/JPY rallied to a further new high early on Wednesday before giving back these gains by the close

There is a high probability that a medium term peak has been formed and that the cross will now decline into Friday or Monday

It should challenge the support at 154.80 on Thursday and reach 154.50 during the next day or two

If 154.50 breaks, then the cross has the ability to make a more impressive decline to the 153.50 area during the next few days

It will then rally into the middle of next week, but if this is mild then the cross will turn down again into the week of December 25

Our ambitious downside target will then become 152.00

This weakness should prove less impressive before the major uptrend resumes, but for now 156.20 should hold - possibly 155.50


Strategy: Take some profits now

Name　　NY Close　　Support 1　　Support 2　　Resistance 1　　Resistance 2
EUR/JPY　155.17　　　154.80　　　　154.50　　　　155.50　　　　156.20
GBP/JPY　231.02　　　230.40　　　　229.80　　　　231.50　　　　232.10
AUD/JPY　92.41　　　　92.10　　　　91.75　　　　　92.70　　 　　93.10

再补充一张欧日的图

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