美元要跌到哪里?

	路透社英文分析文章大意如下（仅供参考） 1. 揣摩格老上周在倫敦讲话的意思为：劝说政府关注双赤和引导市场让美元有序下跌（但是FED不设定目标价位）。 2. 同时也提出美元还要下跌以减少双赤。并估计要让双赤减少3%，美元对主要贸易国的货币还要跌30%。 http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/def ... ry_13-2-2005_pg5_22 Analysis: Greenspan calibrates the dollar WASHINGTON: Is Greenspan trying to stabilize the currency markets with Fedspeak? In sparking a dollar surge with a speech in London last week, Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan may have blunted the very reason for his optimism that the United States can cut record trade and budget deficits without disruption. Two months after sending the dollar reeling by warning about the unstable nature of foreign funding of U.S. payments gaps, the Fed chairman suggested last Friday that free markets could work it out smoothly. This time, the Fed chief argued that the dollar’s fall since 2002 was starting to have a lagged effect on the trade gap as overseas exporters, faced with slow, painful squeezes on their profit margins, are finally upping import prices. “We may be approaching a point — if we are not already there — at which exporters to the United States, should the dollar decline further, would no longer choose to absorb a further reduction in profit margins,” Greenspan said. Buoyed by Greenspan’s benign health check, currency markets propelled the dollar about 1.5 percent higher against a basket of world currencies. But if the lower dollar is key to the solution, Greenspan can hardly have been thrilled at the market’s response to his analysis. The dollar, up 6 percent so far this year, is now more than 2 percent higher than when Greenspan issued his stern warning on the current account last November. Experts, curious about the differing tones of Greenspan speeches on the dollar and current account conundrum, reckon the chairman may well be tailoring his messages to regulate the pulse of the foreign exchange market. The Fed insists it does not aim to target any financial prices, but close watchers of Greenspan say he is acutely aware of the impact his words have in steering markets. If policy-makers agree a further dollar decline is a necessary component of any current account correction, then the policy response should be to ensure it happens smoothly. “He’s modulating the tone of his speeches,” said Michael Mussa, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who is now at the Institute for International Economics. “A year ago, Greenspan said there was nothing to worry about in the current account. By November he seemed concerned about a sudden sharp adjustment and now he’s more relaxed again.” Each time markets get antsy about the scale of the U.S. payments problem — the current account gap on trade and financial flows is headed toward a record of more than 6 percent of output this year — Greenspan seems to calm nerves. When they become complacent, he is more inclined to raise a red flag. Mussa, in an IIE book on the world economy launched this week, estimates a 3 percentage point cut in the deficit would require the dollar fall 30 percent on average versus currencies of the major U.S. trading partners. He agrees with Greenspan’s belief that markets will eventually force a solution to the deficits issue. The problem is whether they do so violently or in an orderly fashion. Definitions of “major disruptions” may differ, he said. But a scenario in which central banks and investors slow or stop purchases of Treasury bonds, push long-term interest rates sharply higher and stall the economy remains a very real risk. “That’s a big disruption. But it is the market working as it should to fix the imbalance,” said Mussa. “The question I pose is, ‘What’s the best we can do in terms of both limiting the risks of such an event and keeping global growth on track?’” Olivier Blanchard, economics professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, thinks the recent dollar rally is “a bump on a downward sloping road.” “What Greenspan wants here is an orderly depreciation of the dollar. He probably knew his remarks would lead to this.” But Blanchard, whose own study on the current account says a dollar slide of between 40 percent and 90 percent would be needed to eliminate a gap of the current magnitude, said Greenspan focused on what was already in the system. The impact of a 33 percent dollar decline over the past two years, although loaded against Europe and Japan and not in East Asia, where U.S. deficits are largest, may yet kick in. “There is enormous uncertainty as to these lagged effects,” Blanchard said. He noted that the so-called “J-curve” effect — an explanation of how valuation effects and business and consumer inertia delay the impact of currency shifts — meant 1985’s steep dollar slide took at least two years to register. However, Blanchard said the dollar will at least need to stay as low as it is now to reap the full benefit of prior losses. A dollar rally now “would surely not be good,” he said. Others think Greenspan’s change of tone was more political in nature and linked to government measures announced this week to cut the U.S. budget deficit in half over five years. “My interpretation of (Greenspan’s change of tone) was that there was a big effort to persuade the president and members of Congress to do something serious on the budget,” said Fred Bergsten, director of the IIE and a former Treasury assistant secretary for international affairs. “The chairman saw that’s not going to happen ... and so he’s trying to limit the damage.” —Reuters

	好支持,但是揣摩不到,应该是老头在劝说国会议员合理的运用预算!!!