ZT - from Ulster Bank

	Well so much for my intervention argument yesterday: you may remember I warned that Japanese intervention was possible yesterday, but as it turned out, the dollar`s slide accelerated. In fact, EUR/USD reached 1.3330 as the Tokyo session drew to a close. However, in my defence, the dollar did manage to rise against one currency yesterday: the yen. So I`m not the only one on watch for intervention - in fact, rumours are flying around the market this morning, probably because EURUSD has fallen from 1.3330 at 6am to 1.3230 currently. However, we still think that the Japanese are the only likely intervention candidates, and various comments yesterday lend support to this view. Take for example a speech made by Sweden`s finance minister yesterday - he surprisingly claimed to know for certain that the ECB has no plans to intervene in the dollar`s slide. The market was perplexed by the Swede`s claim, but attention soon turned to comments from the Bank of England chief economist Charlie Bean, who issued a harsh warning. Bean concentrated on the severity of America`s twin deficits, and warned that the dollar fell sharply when America was similarly indebted in the past (in the 1980`s). You may remember we issued a similar warning back in October, when we released our `Focus` on the dollar`s direction after the election. And Bean went further: he warned that the dollar, in trade-weighted terms, fell by 30% in the 1980`s; whereas its trade weighted value has only fallen by 15% in this current slide. He seemed to suggest the Bank of England is now resigned to the inevitability of further dollar weakness ahead. For reference, the trade-weighted value of the dollar is simply the average value of the dollar against the currencies of America`s six largest trading partners, weighted according to volume of trade. And here`s another fact from our October Focus magazine: if you`re looking for historical precedents, back in 1973, a Republican president, Richard Nixon, was re-elected to the White House. His second term of office was burdened by an expensive foreign war and a deteriorating federal budget, which saw the dollar fall throughout his presidency. The parallels with today are obvious. And in trade weighted terms the dollar fell steadily following Nixon`s inauguration in 1973; in fact, the dollar didn`t get back to its 1973 level until 1982. Now we`re not suggesting that the dollar is going to fall for the next nine years, but comments such as those from Charlie Bean yesterday really do show that the major global central banks - the people who have the power to intervene - have accepted that the dollar simply has to fall if America`s current account deficit is ever going to correct. We still think the Japanese will intervene, but they might soon discover that you can`t hold back the tide. So for dollar sellers, all we can say is that there might be a slight pullback toward year-end, as traders who backed the euro look to crystallise their profits. However, the long-term trend is clear - and at this rate we could hit 1.35 before New Year.

	原帖是要表达如下的观点： 虽然日本方面可能干预，但对于扭转市场大趋势却无济于事。 临近年末，由于部分欧元多头会获利了结，所以欧元会有轻幅的回撤，不过，从长线趋势来看，在新年之前，欧元依然会上攻1.35一线。

	谢谢1977!!!

	谢1977兄.......

	3Q

	"we could hit 1.35 before New Year".  I am agree that your opinion!!!