5月13日 美国贸易逆差加大, 非美货币伺机反弹

	外汇市场评论 美国贸易逆差加大, 非美货币伺机反弹   隔夜主要经济数据: 1. 英国3月贸易逆差为40.51亿英镑(预期为43.5亿英镑); 2. 英国4月初次申领失业金人数减少6000(预期为减少5000),失业率为2.9%; 3. 纽西兰第一季度失业率4.3%, 低于预期(4.6%); 4. 美国3月份贸易赤字为-46B; 预期为-43B;   隔夜市场分析: 随着伊拉克阿盖达组织的领袖对一美国公民的公开斩首,拉开了非美货币昨天的反攻. 英国方面的利好消息和美国3月份贸易赤字大于预期, 更加刺激了非美货币反弹. 而美国方面则表示, 油价在过去几个月内的上扬, 是贸易赤字扩大的主要原因. 而并非其经济上升乏力.后市,非美货币回吐了部分涨幅.   今日操作建议: 警惕非美货币将有小范围回调的风险, 预计今晚美国数据将小幅度优于预期; 中期美元依然看强, 建议寻高出货.   欧元:昨天欧元对美元的升幅, 主要得益于大于预期的美国3月份贸易赤字. 而美国方面则表示, 油价在过去几个月内的上扬, 是贸易赤字扩大的主要原因.由此可见, 欧元兑美元仍然存在卖盘压力. 技术方面: 阻力为1.1980,然后是1.2020; 支持位为1.1870, 然后是1.1760. 预期波动区间: 1.1980-1.1760   日元: 日本昨天股市继续回升走高, 日元回吐了早先的升幅.美元兑日元虽然继续保持在交易区间内波动, 但仍然具备上升潜力. 技术分析:美元日元在未曾有效突破114.00阻力后, 市场出先短暂的调整. 美元兑日元支持位在112.10,然后是110.90而上方阻力在114.00,然后是114.50. 预期波动区间: 114.00-112.10   英镑: 昨天, 英镑对美元受英国贸易逆差小于预期的利好消息的刺激, 兑美元有大幅度回升. 随后英国央行总裁金恩的讲话, 巩固了市场对英镑升息的预期. 更在美国扩大的贸易赤字公布后, 扩大了昨天英镑兑美元1%的升幅.随后伴随小幅度的获利回吐. 技术分析:预计短期上升阻力为1.7820,然后是1.7880; 而主力支持位是1.7680, 然后是1.7620. 预期波动区间: 1.7880-1.7680   澳元和纽币: 由于美元小幅度走软, 澳,纽币在昨天跟随欧元英镑走出反弹行情. 澳币则在美国贸易赤字公布后, 一度上攻0.7030, 可惜没有有效突破.后市伴随有小幅度回吐. 纽币方面, 随着NZ公布第一季度的失业率为近16年的低位, 市场对扭西兰在下月加息的期待升温. 纽币在昨天开盘走强, 后市也伴随有获利回吐的操作. 技术分析: 澳币支持位在0.6910然后是0.6820, 阻力则为0.7040. 纽元: 支持位位于0.6060, 然后是0.6000.阻力则在0.6180,然后是0.6200. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.7040-0.6910;纽元 0.6180-0.6060   以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM

	With one of US citizen killed by some cruel Al Qaeda leaders, dollar was staring weak. As UK good data and US deficit gap wider, even increased all major strength against dollar. Meanwhile US also report the main reason of the wide gap is because of the oil prices were over high in past few months, which is not much hurt the US recovery. Afterwards, major currencies were given back some early profits.    EURO/USD: After US out the March trade deficit was lower than expected, euro was staring fight back against dollar. Meanwhile, US also report that oil prices were over high in past few months is the main reason of the wide the gap. Euro was still under the sell-off pressure in short term. Technical views:  Euro resistance level is 1.1980, and then 1.2020; Support level is 1.1870, and then 1.1760. Trading range: 1.1980-1.1760 USD/JPY: The dollar was pulls back against Yen on today’s Nikkei rise. Dollar Yen was still in the trading range, but has potential to retreat even to the new high, in short period.    Technical view: As dollar yen could not up break 114 as perverse high. Major support is above 112.10, and then 110.90. Resistance is about 114.00, and then 114.50.       Trading range: 114.00-112.10 GBP/USD: Sterling extended gains v.s. dollar after Britain’s March foreign trade deficit came in smaller than expected. BOE’s governor Mervyn King’s speech were also supported interest rate hike expectations. Sterling extended gains over 1 PCT against dollar right after US’s March trade deficit out. Technical view:  The resistance level is near about 1.7820 and then 1.7880. The next support level is 1.76800, and then 1.7620. Trading range: 1.7880-1.7680 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: By flowed the lead of Euro and Sterling, both Aussie and Kiwi was pulled back against dollar. After US data out, Aussie was up trying 0.7030, but not stay steady, driven down by market profit taken. New Zealand’s first quarter jobless data was at 16 year low, heating up the expectation of interest hike nest month. Kiwi was strength at market start, and also has some profit taken after London out. Technical view:  Aussie: The resistance level would be 0.7040 and the support level would be 0.6910, and then 0.6820; Kiwi dollar: the next support of Kiwi is 0.6060, and then 0.6000, Resistance level would be 0.6180,and then 0.6200. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7040-0.6910; NZD/USD: 0.6180-0.6060 以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM

	Originally posted by 张大硕 at 2004-5-13 02:51: 外汇市场评论 美国贸易逆差加大, 非美货币伺机反弹   隔夜主要经济数据: 1. 英国3月贸易逆差为40.51亿英镑(预期为43.5亿英镑); 2. 英国4月初次申领失业金人数减少6000(预期为减少5000),失业率为2.9%; 3. 纽西 ...

	迟到了的分析，讲得还算透辙。

	谢谢