5月5日 美国维持利息不变, 非美走出升势

	隔夜主要经济数据: 1.        英国4月份制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)为55.1; 预期为54 2.        美国3月份工业订单为4.3%;预期为2.4% 3.        美国FOMC公布, 维持利率1%不变 隔夜市场分析: 由于先前的美国乐观的经济消息已经被市场消化, 美元缺乏上升动力.昨日市场在美国公布利息决定前的不确定性,是驱动昨天非美货币反弹的主要原因. 在美国公布利息不变后, 由于符合先前预期, 非美回吐部分涨幅, 市场表现平静. 今日操作建议:今天随后的澳洲的利息公布也是市场关注的焦点. 美元继续聚集人气, 中期看强.   欧元: 昨日,欧元在英国公布4月份采购经理人指数后, 跟随英镑走出上升走势. 后来在FOMC公布前,  由于时常的不确定性, 使得欧元继续上扬,并带动其它非美走出升势. 美国虽然宣布维持利息不变, 由于符合先前预期, 欧元回吐部分涨幅, 总体表现比较平静. 技术方面: 预计欧元中期若有效突破(去年8月低点到今年2月高位的38.2%回调) 则仍有上升潜力.   阻力位位于1.2105然后是1.2150,支持位为1.1980, 然后是1.1870 预期波动区间: 1.2120-1.1970 日元:由于日本仍然处于黄金周假期交易中, 基本操作方向仍然是跟随市场,而不是市场的主导. 技术分析:  支持位在109.50, 然后是109.10而上方阻力在111.10.然后是111.50. 预期波动区间: 111.10-109.10 英镑:今天英国强劲的基本层面消息, 使得英镑兑美元跳高0.02c. 令市场对周四英国加息充满信心. 而英镑今天的走强,也同时得益于美元的疲软.在美国公布利息后, 英镑也表现比较平静. 技术分析:预计 短期上升阻力为1.7980; 而主力支持位1.7770. 预期波动区间: 1.7980-1.7770 澳元和纽币:澳,纽币在昨随欧元英镑走出反弹行情, 纽币一度突破0.6330的主力阻力价位. 在美国FOMC公布后, 澳,纽币涨势有小幅所回落.   市场关注澳币今天晚些时候的加息可能, 但预计中期, 纽,澳币仍有卖盘压力. 技术分析: 澳元主力支持在0.7170附近,然后是0.7080.阻力则为0.7320,然后是0.7370. 纽元: 支持位位于0.62,( (去年9月低点到今年2月高位的61.8%回调);然后是0.6100.阻力则在0.6330,然后是0.6370. 预期波动区间: 澳元0.73200.7170;纽元 0.63700.6230 以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM

	Dollar struggled to rise further as much positive economic data was already priced in the market. Because investors consolidated position ahead of FOMC, all major currencies was strength. As FED announced to keep rate unchanged, as expected, market was quite stable.    EURO/USD: Yesterday, after UK out good data of April manufactory CPI, Euro was followed sterling’s strength. Because the market uncertainty of the FOMC, euro was leaded all major currencies strength against dollar. When FOMC out to keep the rate unchanged, euro was quite stable, and given back some early profits. Technical views: In the middle term euro would still have sell-off risk. Resistance level is 1.2105 and then 1.2150; support level is 1.1980, and then 1.1870. Trading range: 1.2120-1.1970 USD/JPY: Yen was also range market. Because of Japan was still in Golden Week holiday, market on Yen was keeping follow the market. Technical view: Major support is above 109.50, and then 109.10. Resistance is about 111.10, and then will be 111.50 Trading range: 111.10-109.10 GBP/USD: Sterling skipped two cents higher against dollar after strong UK fundamental data. Although some of the strength came from a broad retreat in dollar. After US FOMC out to keep the rate unchanged, sterling was looks stable.   Technical view: The next support level is 1.7620; and the resistance level is near about 1.7810 and 1.7940. Trading range: 1.7980-1.7770 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: By flowed the lead of Euro and Sterling, both Aussie and Kiwi was retraced against dollar. After FOMC announced to keep rate unchanged, Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell off pressure.  Market still focused today’s RBA meeting on how the interest rate goes. Both Aussie and Kiwi was still under pressure. Technical view:  Major support of Aussie would be 0.7170 and then 0.7080; the resistance level would be 0.7320, and then 0.7370; Kiwi dollar: the next support of Kiwi is 0.62, as 61.8% FIBO retracement form the low at Sep.2003 to the high at Feb. this year; and then is 0.61. Resistance level would be 0.6330, and then 0.6370. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7320-0.7170; NZD/USD: 0.6370-0.6230 以上评论完成于AKL6:30AM (GMT+12); Beijing 2:30AM

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