4月24日 外汇简评 周五非美小幅回调,美国基本面数据依然强劲

	昨日市场主要数据: 美国3月份耐用品指数为3.4%;预期为0.7% 英国3月份零售销售率为0.6%;预期为0.2%   隔夜市场分析: 由于前天的美国就业率差强人意, 今天非美走出一轮反弹行情. 德国放面也劲爆放弃手中三菱股份的惊人消息, 给市场带来波动. 美国的3月份耐用品指数远好于预期, 后市非美回落. 今日操作建议: 警惕高息货币回调风险, 建议寻高卖出.   欧元: 由于周四美国方面低于预期的就业率, 和受欧元日元交叉盘的影响, 欧元兑美元走出一轮反攻行情. 稍后美国数据出台后, 欧元有短期获利回吐的回调, 后期欧元比较稳定.技术方面分看, 欧元仍处在下跌通到中, 中期仍有下跌风险. 阻力位位于1.1920然后是1.1980, 欧元支持位为1.1760. 预期波动区间: 1.920-1.1760   日元:昨天美元兑日元的交易, 由于德国戴姆勒克莱斯勒表示要出售三菱汽车37%价值约1,750亿日元股份后,受日元欧元交叉盘的影响, 日元美元虽有振荡, 但在美国数据出台后, 日元表现仍然比较稳定.在技术分析上看; 在周末的G7会议之前,日元基本应维持在区间波动.支持位在108.30.然后是107.90.而上方阻力在110.40附近. 预期波动区间: 109.80-108.30   英镑: 昨天公布的强劲的英国零售销售数据,增强了市场对其央行5月份加息的普遍预期. 英镑得到短暂提振. 而美国强劲的耐用品订单出台后,英镑全面受抛压, 并回吐了早先的涨幅. 在技术分析上看, 英镑仍然有处于下跌通道的区间交易.下一个支持则在1.7580然后是1.7360(去年8月低点到今年2月高位的菲波纳奇50%回调). 阻力位于1.7840 预期交易区间: 1.7800-1.7580   澳元和纽币: 在昨天, 由于澳,纽没有新的经济数据. 格老讲话余温仍在, 作为高利息货币澳元和纽币虽然跟随欧元英镑小幅回升,但中期仍有卖盘危险. 澳元跌破0.7280的”颈”线后,主力支持在0.7170附近.阻力则为0.7370的(去年9月抵点到今年2月高位的菲波纳奇38.2%回调).纽元也位于下降通道中, 若有效跌破0.6180(去年9月低点到今年2月高位的61.8%回调)后则会继续下跌, 支持位位于0.6050附近.阻力则在0.6370. 预期交易区间: 澳元0.7370_0.7170;纽元 0.6330_0.6150   4月24日 6:00AM

	Because of week US job data on Thursday, all major currencies were fighting back against dollar. Market was also effect by the news form Daimler Chrysler would sell its 37% shares of Mitsubishi motors. Because of good data from US, all majors were pullback by dollar. Today’s Suggestion: Be aware of high yield retracement, and the suggestion is still sell-high. EURO/USD:  Because of weak US job data on Thursday, and also affected by EuroYan cross, Euro was fighting back against dollar yesterday. As the US good durable goods, market sold off Euro against dollar as short time profit taken. Afterwards, Euro back to previous levels.  Technical view: euro still trade in downside trend, and also has sell-off risk.  Resistance level is 1.1920 then 1.1980; support level is 1.1760. Trading range: 1.1920-1.1760 USD/JPY: yesterday, with the news out of German car maker Daimler Chrysler said they will sell about 37% share in Mitsubishi, which worth 175 billion yen, Euro yen cross was under pressure. Right after US data release, dollar yen was picking up the losing ground. Technical view: Dollar Yen should still keep the range trading before G7 meeting, next week. Major support is above 108.30.then 107.90. Resistance is about 110.40.   Trading range: 109.80-108.30 GBP/USD: Yesterday, with positive retail sales data heating up the expected of rate hiking in May. Sterling was fighting back when news released. Dollar picking its strength right after strong US durable goods data out. Sterling was under sell-off pressure; giving back the earlier profits pound already taken. Technical view: Cable still in downside trend. The next support level is 1.7580, and then 1.7360, (which is 50% FIBO retracement form the low at Aug.2003 to the high at Feb. this year.)The resistance level is above 1.7840. Trading range: 1.7800-1.7580 AUD/USD; NZD/USD: There was no major data from Australia and NZ yesterday.  Market still concern about Fed chairman Greenspan’s optimism testimonies. As commodity currencies, both Aussie and Kiwi was under the sell-off pressure and they start to suffer from US$ strength, although by followed the lead of Euro and sterling, both of Aussie and Kiwi made a range retracement. Technical view:  Major support of Aussie would be 0.7170; as 0.7280, the ‘Neck line’ broken. Resistance level would be 0.7370; as 38.2% FIBO retracement form the low at Sep.2003 to the high at Feb.  Kiwi dollar was still in the downside trend. If Kiwi would efficiently break though 0.6180, the next support of Kiwi is 0.6050. Resistance level would be 0.6370. Trading range: AUD/USD: 0.7370-0.7170; NZD/USD: 0.6330-0.6150

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