zt亚洲中央银行资助美国的双赤字

	（1）路透社文章：“While the importance of foreign central banks in funding the United States's twin deficits is abundantly clear, it is rarely mentioned by anyone in power.” （2）印度经济学家评论：“The benign transfer of wealth to America by Asia, via a weakening dollar, cannot continue indefinitely as the US is implicitly defaulting via a falling currency. ” ----------------- (1) Dollar's woes proving bizarre bonanza for US debt Reuters, 01.14.04, 10:42 AM ET By Wayne Cole (Excerpt) NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The dollar's decline is proving, somewhat bizarrely, to be a boon for Treasuries as central bank intervention funds find a home in the bosom of U.S. debt markets. On Thursday the Federal Reserve is expected to report that its holdings of U.S. Treasury and agency debt for foreign central banks hit a record high this week. In fact, the weekly rise in the Fed's custody holdings could itself be one of the largest on record since the Bank of Japan is understood to have bought a massive $38 billion last week through intervention against the yen. Analysts assume much of that money will end up parked in U.S. Treasuries, and thus be held by the Fed. So great is this tide of funds that a dynamic has built in the Treasury market where weakness in the dollar leads to expectations of intervention-related buying of bonds and to downward pressure on U.S. bond yields. "The unprecedented scale of the intervention has grossly distorted traditional correlations between the dollar, bond yields and equities," argues Alan Ruskin, chief economist at 4CAST. He even equates the trend as equal, in all but name, with the great Plaza and Louvre currency accords of the 1980s. This flood of money, analysts suggest, is a major reason why market interest rates have stayed so subdued in recent months despite a startling acceleration in economic growth. It is a perverse dynamic since the market had initially feared a slide in the dollar would hurt Treasuries, partly through the risk of higher inflation, but mainly as the threat of currency losses would scare away overseas investors. But while capital flows data shows foreign private investors have indeed shied away, their governments are more concerned with preventing an export-damaging rise in their currencies. Just last year foreign central bank holdings of Treasuries ballooned by $172 billion to a record $862 billion -- meaning they funded almost half of the United States's $375 billion budget deficit last year. Most of this growth is linked to currency intervention by Asian countries, notably Japan and China. Japan's foreign exchange reserves rose $187 billion in the year while China's expanded by $117 billion. "This is by far the fastest reserve accumulation in history and it serves no useful purpose other than as a support to the dollar," notes Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers. Neither does it seem likely to end anytime soon. China remains committed to its currency peg with the dollar, which makes intervention against the yuan virtually automatic. The Japanese meanwhile, have just arranged for the Ministry of Finance to borrow up to 10 trillion yen from the BOJ in order to fund yet more yen-selling intervention. The first five trillion yen of that reportedly changed hands today. IT'S NOT SOMETHING WE TALK ABOUT While the importance of foreign central banks in funding the United States's twin deficits is abundantly clear, it is rarely mentioned by anyone in power. Treasury Secretary John Snow last week claimed the budget deficit was eminently manageable, while only a day ago Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan saw no problem in funding the current account shortfall. Neither mentioned the contribution of foreign governments. The White House stance is understandable since the flow of foreign money is making it easier to argue that budget deficits do not push up interest rates, and so justify past tax cuts. But the Fed also has reason to be thankful. The central bank caused a stir in markets last year by suggesting that, if deflation became a real danger, it might respond by buying long-term Treasuries directly and driving yields lower. In the end, officials decided the proposal had too many dangers of its own and it fell from favor. But, the Fed seems to have no problem with foreign governments buying Treasuries. "One of the great ironies of the latest events, is that for all the debate about the implications of the Fed buying Treasuries to suppress bond yields, it is foreign central banks, notably the BOJ, that is doing the job for them," said 4CAST's Ruskin. Copyright 2004, Reuters News Service http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/14/rtr1210632.html (2) 2004: Year of risk appetite vs. aversion V. Anantha Nageswaran Recent US dollar recovery is not fundamental, because... (Excerpt) The short-term rebound in the dollar was not denied for long. The rapid appreciation of the euro drew the attention of Eurozone politicians and the European Central Bank. Further, better than expected trade deficit, consumer confidence and foreign purchase of US assets in November all combined to boost the dollar in the past week. The euro swiftly descended from a peak of around 1.285 to around 1.23. Gold too slipped from a high of $428 per ounce to around $406. Is the market betting that greed would overcome fear? Well, the bond market signals otherwise. The US 10-year Treasury yield had fallen below 4.0 per cent even as the dollar recovered its poise. This seems strange. The bond market is reacting to lack of inflation and the weak labour market while the dollar appears to be in the midst of a technical recovery. Of course, the opposite could be true too. ...US bond yields decline The second interpretation is not convincing because, before the recent rally, the US bond market was not oversold and further, the rebound in net foreign purchase of US assets in November was mainly concentrated in US Treasuries and government-backed bonds. Hence, this was not a sign of a return of foreigner confidence. It was clearly a sign of desperation of foreigners to stop their currencies appreciating too fast against the dollar. As before, Japan led the charge. It bought nearly $25 billion of US Treasuries in November. China, including Hong Kong, bought about $5 billion. India too increased its holding of US Treasuries from $8.6 billion in January 2003 to $14.7 billion in November. Before 2003, India had not merited a separate line entry in this monthly statistics released by the US Treasury. Hence, it seems entirely appropriate to view the appreciation of the US dollar as a correction within the context of an ongoing long-term decline. Asia cannot sustain its mercantilism for long However, it is likely that the currencies that appreciated against the dollar in 2002 and in 2003 will not make further gains. The onus of bearing the dollar weakness would then shift to Asian currencies. The benign transfer of wealth to America by Asia, via a weakening dollar, cannot continue indefinitely as the US is implicitly defaulting via a falling currency. As the American economy buckles under its own contradictions in 2005, if not in 2004, Asians would come to realise the futility of their mercantile policies and work seriously to boost domestic demand. When that realisation arrives, it will be clearer that not all Asian economies are either ready to or capable of boosting domestic demand. Small and open economies would experience lower growth at least in the short-term. Those blessed either with sagacious leaders or bigger economies (India) would be relatively better off. Then, any ascent in asset prices would be more sustainable. http://www.thehindubusinessline. ... 004011900030800.htm