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Dollar--Still Strong, But More Flexible--Sinks

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发表于 2003-10-8 10:34 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
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Dollar--Still Strong, But More Flexible--Sinks
Dan Ackman, 09.23.03, 8:53 AM ET

NEW YORK - The U.S. strong-dollar policy never changes, but from time to time, there are changes in the interpretation. This morning, the dollar fell to 33-month lows against the yen and weakened against other currencies, too, all in response to the Group of Seven statement made in Dubai on Sept. 22, which mentioned the desirability of "more flexibility in exchange rates" for major countries.

What the statement means was still being debated, but to some it meant that the Bank of Japan should cut back on interventions in currency markets deigned to cut the price of the yen. The word in those markets is that the BoJ has actually stepped back over the past few days, which allowed the dollar to slip sharply against the yen, causing a broader dollar relapse against other major rivals.

"For a long time, the United States has been moving away from a strong-dollar policy. This [the G7 statement] is definitely another nail in the coffin," Lara Rhame, senior economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York, told Reuters. In general the so-called strong-dollar policy advocated by U.S. Treasury chiefs since Lloyd Bentsen, who served in the first years of the Clinton administration, has been gradually toned down by his successors, foreign exchange analysts believe.

John Snow, the current Treasury secretary, continues to deny it. "I'm not going to comment on currency levels or day-to-day fluctuations in any prices or indices of economic value," Snow said in response to questions from a small group of reporters on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting. Even that statement was deemed by some an abandonment of the strong dollar. But Snow was emphatic. "There's no change in the strong-dollar policy," he said.

Other foreign exchange analysts doubt there ever was much of a policy, but more of a talking point. To the extent that there is a policy, the statement by economic ministers in Dubai calling for more flexibility would seem to be a shift away from it. The statement was widely read as criticism of Asian economies including China and Japan for intervening to hold their currencies down and so gain an export advantage.

In the U.S., there is renewed political pressure to seek a higher yen, which means a lower dollar, because of the upcoming election campaign in which industrial states will play a key role. These states have been steadily losing manufacturing jobs, and a strong dollar is often said to be part of the cause. President George W. Bush will likely reinforce the G7 message on his trip to Japan next month.

European countries are showing slower growth than the U.S. and may look to increased exports for a lift.

But just this morning, Snow warned against the idea. Speaking in Dubai, he said it was unhealthy for the global economy for countries to depend on exports to the U.S. for growth and that other nations needed to foster homegrown expansion. "While export growth can serve a useful purpose, you can't have a successful world economy if everybody relies on the export sector," he said. "Then you build in imbalances.

"So there's increasing acceptance that particularly the major economies of the world need to focus on their demand-led growth, take steps to put in place reform policies that allow their domestic economies to perform well," he said.

Yesterday, U.S. stocks fell slightly. The decline was said to be partly in fear that overseas investors would flee U.S. markets if the dollar weakens. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 109.41, or 1.1%, to 9,535.41. Dow components and major exporters Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) and Boeing (nyse: BA - news - people ) were both down about 3%. But a weaker dollar would arguably help both firms, and there was no major price shift in export- or import-sensitive shares
stonetimes
发表于 2003-10-8 10:50 | 显示全部楼层
美元依然强势,但需要更大的弹性。
是这样理解吗?
孝老、健身、行善不能等!
年龄、孤独、未来不能怕!
工作、机遇、出身不能悔!
发表于 2003-10-8 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
Originally posted by 落花流水 at 2003-10-8 10:50:
美元依然强势,但需要更大的弹性。
是这样理解吗?

谢谢注解~~
发表于 2003-10-8 10:52 | 显示全部楼层
介绍一下出处就好了,不知是这位发言的高人哪里发财?
Dany makes Marvel.
发表于 2003-10-8 10:59 | 显示全部楼层
3q!近日态度有否改变?

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